Data published yesterday by the Department for Education on pupil attainment at the end of primary school continues to paint a worrying picture for social mobility in England.
Despite the gap in attainment between disadvantaged pupils (those eligible for the pupil premium) and their peers at the end of primary school closing slightly since last year (the DfE’s “disadvantage gap index” was 3.20 this year, down from 3.23 in 2022), the gap remains larger than before the Covid-19 pandemic and around the same size as it was back in 2012.
Although the immediate disruption of the pandemic has passed, yesterday’s figures illustrate the lasting impact it has had on primary school pupils.
The pupils who finished primary school this summer were only halfway through Year 3 when the pandemic hit in early 2020.
While we know that there continues to be learning loss, particularly in maths, the widening of the disadvantage gap is not only a result of the pandemic.
Sats: The widening of the disadvantage gap
Previous research by the Education Policy Institute shows that the disadvantage gap for primary school pupils was already widening in 2019 and the pandemic has likely only widened it further.
The long-term implications of not rapidly reversing this widening of the gap are concerning.
The gap was at its narrowest (since DfE statistics began in 2011) in 2018, when it was 2.90. Based on the progress made this year alone, we project that we wouldn’t get back to that 2018 figure until 2033.
That means we would have potentially “lost” 15 years of progress towards closing the attainment gap at primary school.
The proportion of pupils meeting the expected standard in reading, writing and maths has remained the same as last year, at 59 per cent - still considerably below the pre-pandemic level of 65 per cent in 2019.
In individual subjects, while there have been some small improvements in maths and writing since last year, the percentage of pupils reaching the expected standard in these subjects is still down on pre-pandemic levels.
In reading, there has been a small decline since last year, but results are similar to those in 2019. This is in line with our own findings on the extent of learning loss caused by the pandemic.
We previously found that in autumn 2022 primary pupils in Year 5 and Year 6 had recovered losses in reading but were just under 1.5 months behind in maths.
Last year the government announced a series of “levelling up” missions, one being that 90 per cent of pupils will meet the expected standard in reading, writing and maths at the end of key stage 2 by 2030.
Given the current lack of improvement in attainment outcomes, it looks increasingly unlikely that this target will be met.
The proportion of pupils meeting the expected standard will now have to increase by an average of almost 4.5 percentage points a year, for the next seven years, for this target to be achieved.
Regional variations in attainment
The latest data also shows geographical differences in key stage 2 attainment. London was the only region to see a fall in the proportion of pupils reaching the expected standard in reading, writing and maths compared with last year.
However, it remains the region with the highest attainment across all subjects.
Concerningly, since the start of the pandemic the gap has widened between London and most other regions, with the exception of parts of the Midlands. Again, this is hard to reconcile with the government’s aims of levelling up.
The positive link between pupils’ attainment at the end of primary school and their later education and life outcomes is well understood. We therefore risk reducing both social mobility and productivity in the future.
However, it is not too late for the cohort of pupils starting secondary school this month or future cohorts who will sit their key stage 2 tests in the years to come. These pupils will remain in school for at least another five years.
But the government does need to take more seriously the issues of both a widened disadvantage gap and residual learning loss. That requires investment to unwind the damage of the past few years as quickly as possible and avoid stagnation into the future.
Louis Hodge is associate director for school system and performance at the Education Policy Institute
