This morning politicians, policymakers, pundits and election geeks will all be waking up with sore heads and blurry eyes.
A new government will be formed over the coming days and it faces many challenges on schools, including shortfalls in teacher recruitment, persistent educational inequalities and high levels of school absence.
But the most pressing item on the agenda will be the need to make an immediate decision on teacher pay and school funding in the next few weeks.
Normally the government sets out plans for school funding in July for the next financial year, which in this case will begin in April 2025. This gives local authorities, multi-academy trusts and schools about nine months to make financial plans.
For understandable reasons, the publication of the pay review body’s report and recommendations for teacher pay in September 2024 was postponed until after the election.
Teacher pay and school funding
As such, publication should now be imminent - and it will mean a decision on teacher pay is needed quickly.
Although the new government will take time to bed in, it would be advisable for it to keep as close as possible to usual timetables, particularly as decisions on school funding are inextricably linked to a decision on teacher pay for September 2024.
What that pay deal will look like remains to be seen. If we look at school budgets, we know that schools could probably afford an overall teacher pay rise of 1-2 per cent from current funding.
However, given the overall shortfall in teacher recruitment and the persistently high numbers of teachers leaving the profession, the pay review body may recommend a higher pay rise.
In this case, schools would almost certainly need higher levels of funding to cover the costs.
This could be an early and difficult trade-off for the new government.
While inflation is currently below 2 per cent, average earnings growth is currently about 6 per cent and teacher pay is about 6 per cent lower in real terms than in 2010.
On the other hand, the public finances are in a poor state and it will not be easy to find extra money for schools. And other parts of the education workforce - such as college teachers - have seen even slower pay growth from an even lower base.
The pay review body is also due to provide advice on targeted pay rises or incentives in shortage subjects, like maths, sciences and languages. Increasing the number of subject specialists in schools was a priority for all parties during the election campaign.
There is also good evidence on the effectiveness on targeted retention payments for early career teachers in shortage subjects.
With huge challenges in recruiting and retaining teachers in these subjects, the new government would be well advised to act early.
SEND support difficulties
While important, these early decisions on teacher pay and school funding are likely to be eclipsed by the longer-term challenges associated with special educational needs and disabilities (SEND) funding and support.
The system covers some of the most vulnerable children, who face significant challenges accessing education.
The number of pupils with SEND has grown by 60 per cent since 2015. Partly as a result of this, funding directed at high-needs has grown by £3.5 billion since 2015, taking up nearly half of the total growth in school funding over the same period.
Councils have reacted to high demand and spiralling costs by taking a harder line on initial applications. However, this is likely to have rationed support to parents with the loudest voices and money to spend on private assessments.
Indeed, 98 per cent of appeals to tribunals are won by parents that make it that far. With costs and funding going up by £700 million to 800 million per year, challenges in the SEND system are a first-order fiscal issue.
Providing effective support for children with SEND in a financially sustainable way should be one of the biggest education priorities for the new government.
Exactly how to do this is not obvious, but it could include earlier identification and intervention, particularly as late identification can often be less effective and more costly.
All told, those sore heads and blurry eyes will need to sharpen up and start planning.
Luke Sibieta is a research fellow at the Institute for Fiscal Studies
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