The Covid-19 pandemic has left an indelible mark on our education system, and the repercussions may well be felt for generations to come.

One major issue is that poorer GCSE results will scar successive cohorts of children well into the 2030s.

This was a key finding from our study for the Nuffield Foundation that leads to a devastating conclusion: the learning loss suffered by school pupils during the Covid crisis could become the most inequitable legacy of the pandemic.

For the first time, our study takes a multi-dimensional approach to assess the disruption caused by Covid school closures.

We went beyond narrow academic measures of children’s development to consider the damage wrought by the pandemic on pupils’ socioemotional skills.

Covid classroom closures

Socioemotional skills, including how pupils socialise and cooperate with others and regulate their emotions, are revealed to be just as pivotal as cognitive skills in determining how well they do in their GCSEs, shaping children’s trajectories from age five onwards throughout their schooling years.

As such, the closure of classrooms deprived children of not only face-to-face learning but to many other things schools provide, from emotional support and social interaction to regular meals for many pupils.

A perfect storm of factors in the post-pandemic era has exacerbated inequalities inside and outside the school gates.

The crushing reality is that we have gone backwards as a society: many children are now missing out on what were considered universal entitlements in previous generations - healthy food, warmth and basic healthcare, tests for eyesight, hearing and dental health.

The GCSE impact

Our analysis, derived from detailed data on thousands of pupils, predicts that less than four in 10 students in England in 2030 will achieve a grade 5 or above in English and mathematics at GCSE, which is judged by the government as a “good pass”.

This is lower than the 45.3 per cent of students who achieved this basic benchmark in 2022-23.

Our research raises serious questions as to whether ministers adequately considered the generational impact of school closures when they responded to the Covid crisis.

The problem for education is that it is inherently a long-term project, always vulnerable to politicians’ short-term horizons. Whatever the UK Covid-19 Inquiry concludes, it will be too late for the cohorts of children who have been failed by the adults once again.

Proper solutions

Policymakers must prioritise activities that enhance both socioemotional and cognitive skills. We advocate a series of pragmatic policies that have the potential to equalise opportunities in the divided world we now live in.

These include an enrichment guarantee in schools to enable all children to benefit from wider curricular activities, including arts and sports, valued for their own educational worth.

We should also routinely publish wellbeing measures for pupils in all schools - something that has been trialled successfully in Manchester schools. It is only by reforming what we offer in schools that we have a chance to repair the broken social contract that is causing a large swathe of pupils to be absent from the classroom.

We also back a national tutoring service enabling university undergraduates to undergo training by teachers to then tutor and mentor pupils in local schools falling behind in basic literacy and maths.

Undergrads receive a credit towards their degree for their work. Trials of this scheme at the University of Exeter and local schools reveal that many tutors go on to consider a career in teaching.

Rebalancing act

Meanwhile, I’m working with Ofsted to consider future options for rebalancing school inspections: inspectors must give greater credit to schools transforming outcomes in challenging contexts and better recognise the multiple achievements of pupils.

Finally, rebalancing the school calendar would improve the wellbeing of teachers and pupils by creating more holiday breaks during the gruelling winter term.

The next government has an opportunity to not only create a fairer society but also to boost the nation’s flagging economy. Out of the pandemic’s dark long shadow, we can create an education system in which all children flourish.

Lee Elliot Major is professor of social mobility at the University of Exeter. His latest book, Equity in Education, is published by John Catt

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