New figures obtained by Tes Scotland show almost one in five probationer teachers on this year’s induction scheme had opted out by January.
The Teacher Induction Scheme (TIS) guarantees teaching graduates a job in a school for a year on the way to becoming fully qualified.
In May 2023, a total of 3,161 probationer teachers were allocated a place on the scheme.
As of 31 August 2023, there were 2,658 in the cohort and as of January 1 2024 - less than halfway through the induction year - there were 2,602.
The total drop in the number of teachers on the scheme is 559, which equates to just under 18 per cent of the original cohort.
The figures were obtained by Tes Scotland via a freedom of information request to the General Teaching Council for Scotland (GTCS), which is responsible for managing the TIS.
The GTCS said that the numbers on the TIS were liable to change following allocation in the spring before probationers took up their placements in schools, given some would opt to withdraw or defer.
Alternative paths for probationers
A spokesperson said some might move to the Flexible Route, which allows probationers to accumulate experience in the classroom without having to take on a full-time post in a specified school.
Others, the spokesperson said, might choose to remain in academic study - they could for instance decide to undertake a master’s-level qualification.
A small number of teachers allocated places would also, ultimately, not be successful in achieving GTCS registration, said the spokesperson.
However, the spokesperson added that the GTCS believes “there is a need to revisit the structure of ITE [initial teacher education] and induction to ensure that the route to becoming a teacher is as effective as possible”.
The spokesperson said the focus of induction should be on the “continued education and development” of the probationer “with support from colleagues in their school and local authority” but “this is not always the experience of some provisionally registered teachers”.
The GTCS was “committed to working with partners to secure improvements”.
It is not the first time that the GTCS has called for induction to be reviewed. In 2018, Ken Muir, who was GTCS’s chief executive at the time, called for a review of the TIS, saying he believed part-time posts should be available for those with caring responsibilities.
Multiple factors when probationers leave teaching
Today, Scotland’s largest teaching union, the EIS, said probationers and new entrants were experiencing many of the same challenges as experienced teachers, including high workload pressures, large class sizes, under-resourcing of additional support needs provision, and rising levels of violent and threatening behaviour.
Andrea Bradley, general secretary of the EIS, said: “All of these could well be contributing factors in the growing number of probationers leaving prior to the completion of their induction year.”
She added: “Added to this, probationers will be increasingly aware of the scarcity of secure job prospects for new entrants into teaching, despite Scottish government commitments to maintain teacher numbers and the allocation of funding to local authorities to offer permanent teaching posts.”
The Scottish government says it has funded councils to protect teacher numbers. However, teacher numbers in Scotland fell last year and in 2022.
Official figures also show that by September 2023, just 17 per cent of primary teachers who completed the TIS the previous year had secured permanent jobs - either full-time or part-time. That is down from 20 per cent the previous year and 58 per cent in 2017.
Ms Bradley continued: “This is likely leading to a greater number of young teachers considering alternative options far earlier in their careers, and opting to pursue other opportunities which offer more security and greater career prospects.”
She called for higher levels of investment in education “to ensure better job prospects and a good working environment for new and established teachers”, as well as “a high-quality educational experience for all young people”.
Analysis: Are more new entrants to teaching dropping out?
The figures uncovered by Tes Scotland show 3,161 probationer teachers were allocated a place on the Teacher Induction Scheme in the spring of last year but by January this year - less than halfway through induction - there were just 2,602 left, representing a drop of 559, or 18 per cent.
But is this rate higher than usual?
For previous cohorts, it is possible to see the number of probationers allocated to the TIS in the spring and how many remained by the time of the teacher census over a year later, in September.
So, for instance, in spring 2022, 3,461 probationers were allocated a placement on the TIS for the 2022-23 academic year. By the time of the teacher census in September 2023, over a year later, the headcount for that cohort is reported as 2,889 probationers - a drop of 572 probationers or over 16 per cent.
Sharper fall in probationer numbers
This year, the fall in probationer numbers is steeper - at 18 per cent - even though the period of time covered is far shorter.
The available data also reveals that in previous years, the drop in the number of probationers was significantly lower.
In spring 2021, 3,617 probationers were allocated a place on the TIS for the 2021-22 school year. By the September 2022 census, the headcount for that cohort is recorded as 3,218 - a drop of 399 probationers or 11 per cent.
In 2018-19, the last year unaffected by the pandemic, 3,275 probationers were allocated to the TIS in spring 2018. By the September 2019 census, the headcount for that cohort was reported as 2,836 - a drop of 439 probationers or 13 per cent.
These figures suggest that the attrition rate this year is higher than usual even though the induction year is far from over.
This should set alarm bells ringing, given that there are already issues filling places on secondary teacher education courses and now retaining those who sign up to join the profession also appears to be becoming harder.
Emma Seith is senior reporter at Tes Scotland. She tweets @Emma_Seith
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