As we begin 2025 there is a distinct lack of clarity around the government’s approach to schools.
Before Christmas the education team published their first bill (officially the Children’s Wellbeing and Schools Bill), which is a mish-mash of safeguarding measures left over from the Conservatives’ failed 2022 bill; a few manifesto pledges, such as free primary school breakfasts; and a reduction in academy freedoms.
The academy section, in particular, seem like a solution in search of a problem.
There’s a logic to wanting to align academies’ powers with those of maintained schools, but then why not give everyone additional freedoms rather than restricting academies? Is there any evidence that giving trusts more powers over pay or curriculum has led to negative consequences that outweigh the benefits?
Expect delays with schools bill plans
If there is any such evidence, the government hasn’t presented it. Indeed, it hasn’t given any real justification for the bill. There’s no accompanying documentation for this planned legislation beyond a short press release.
Either way, the question of academy freedoms hardly seems like a priority when there are so many other challenges for the sector. The same could be said for a number of other big, time-consuming projects that were kicked off last year, including the curriculum review and new Ofsted report cards.
One prediction for 2025 is that these processes, designed to meet manifesto pledges, get overrun by events, leading to delays.
The curriculum review, in particular, is running on an unnecessarily short timetable that will inhibit the ability of the panel to make anything but superficial changes.
The inspection report cards are, inevitably, proving more tricky to design than initially appreciated, and - here’s another prediction - they are probably going to require significant rethinking once school leaders realise how much more of a pain they’re going to be than the current system.
Meanwhile, ministers are starting to come to terms with the sheer volume of effluent left on their desks by the previous government.
The two biggest problems are teacher recruitment and support for special educational needs and disabilities (SEND). The former was the subject of Labour’s main manifesto pledge on education - recruiting 6,500 teachers - but we still await the plan.
Teacher recruitment numbers this year are, again, bleak and it’s not clear whether a few more bursaries and retention incentives will fix the supply problem. We can expect political pressure to start to build up around this through the year unless there is improvement.
SEND ‘nightmare’
SEND, though, is the real nightmare. The cost of the system is now out of control, with most local authorities in debt and at risk of effective bankruptcy, even with substantial increases in funding.
Education, health and care plans are taking longer and longer to be awarded and are worth ever less when they are. This creates an incentive to apply for more plans in the hope of getting some of the necessary funding to cover the costs of SEND support. It’s a horrible vicious cycle.
Resolving this will require a significant change in approach, with limited cash and very little trust from SEND parent groups.
The politics are extremely difficult, with little reward for getting it right. Which is why the previous government put off dealing with the problem for so long. But this one can’t - not, at least, without running up huge bills.
Money to smooth the transition and enable mainstream schools to provide more early intervention and inclusive support is likely to be the big ask of the Treasury for the spending review covering 2026-29, which is due in the summer. If little is forthcoming - and there is little to go around - things are going to get very tricky.
Big questions remain
Beyond the SEND question, one would expect core schools funding to remain fairly static following the already announced boost in 2025-26 (which covers last year’s higher-than-expected pay award).
It’s possible there will be more money available for capital projects, but again there will be intense competition for limited infrastructure funds across government.
Perhaps the biggest question of all is whether ministers will be able to mould all of this activity into a coherent package.
We’ve had a white paper on devolution and a clean-energy plan, the NHS is working on a “10-year plan” and welfare on its own big white paper, but there is, as yet, no sign of any overarching proposals on schools.
It’s likely there will be another schools bill in the next session of Parliament covering any changes to the SEND system and possibly introducing academy trust inspections, too.
That will offer an opportunity for the government to put forward a clear and comprehensive summary of what it’s trying to achieve in education. At the moment this is sorely lacking.
Sam Freedman is a senior fellow at the Institute for Government and a former senior policy adviser at the Department for Education
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