Reading the headlines about this week’s further talks with education secretary Gillian Keegan and further NEU strike action now being “inevitable”, I was reminded of an exchange in Armando Iannucci’s brilliant satirical film In The Loop.
Malcolm Tucker, the prime minister’s terrifying spin doctor (played by Peter Capaldi), is lecturing Tom Hollander’s hapless minister about the prospect of war being neither foreseeable nor unforeseeable.
“Right,” says Hollander’s character. “Not inevitable but not…evitable?”
The headline about the apparent “inevitability” of more teacher strikes came from my comments in a press release that we issued after the conclusion of Wednesday’s talks. “We cannot go on like this,” I said. “Unless there is tangible progress towards an improved offer [on pay and conditions], the prospect of further strike action by NEU members is inevitable.”
In the fast-paced world of the media, the nuance of that sentence was lost. The words “unless there is tangible progress” were just as important as “inevitable”.
So be it. This is our territory, of course, aiming to provide meaningful comments on fast-moving situations. Sometimes drama trumps nuance. It’s how it goes. No complaints from me.
The chance to avoid more teacher strikes
And anyhow, in truth, it seems very unlikely that further strikes will be averted, given that there are only seven working days before they resume, and there is still no hint of an improved pay offer on the table.
However, there still remains a slim window of opportunity for the government to do the right thing, and we can only hope that ministers see sense between now and then.
To be fair, the signs are not as bleak as the headlines suggest.
There was a new tone to the talks held on Wednesday, which suggested a greater degree of urgency on the part of the government.
There were discussions, for example, about how workload pressures on teachers and leaders might be reduced.
It wouldn’t be right to divulge the detail at this stage, but this is at least an active discussion - about an issue that has for too long blighted the job of being a teacher.
There is also speculation swirling around Westminster about what the government may do in terms of public sector pay, with all eyes on the Spring Budget on 15 March, when, it seems reasonable to assume, any announcement - if there is one - might be made.
The trouble is, of course, that the tone in which talks are conducted is not the same as a concrete offer over pay and conditions, and the Spring Budget does not come until a further round of strikes will have already taken place.
Indeed, 15 March is the start of two days of national action planned by the NEU.
Dithering and delay
As ministers have had several weeks’ notice of strikes in which to come up with a tangible offer to resolve the dispute, the continued dithering and delay is disappointing, to say the least.
Gillian Keegan is in the direct line of fire for this state of affairs, but her hands seem notably tied by the Treasury and Downing Street.
This is ultimately, therefore, a failure of leadership by the prime minister.
And, as I have written on numerous occasions before, this failure is not only about strikes and the factors that have caused this industrial unrest (that is, pay and conditions).
It is also about the deeper, long-standing problem of staff shortages, which schools and colleges are having to manage on a daily basis, and the damage this causes to young people’s education.
It’s a message that is hard to articulate because it is more complex than whether teachers walk out on a given day.
But it is nonetheless the case that pay, conditions, recruitment and retention - together with insufficient funding - are interlinked, leading us to a situation in which our educational infrastructure is struggling to cope.
Make do and mend - but for how long?
Schools and colleges make do and mend.
They deploy non-specialist teachers and supply staff to plug gaps, they increase class sizes, they trim budgets wherever they can to make ends meet, and leaders and teachers work themselves into the ground to keep things running and do the best for their students.
But, much like the NHS, ours is a system that is crumbling before the government’s eyes.
If ministers continue to preside over the erosion of our public services in this way, they will certainly pay the price at the ballot box.
But families, children and communities will pay a much heavier price to their health, wealth and happiness.
Unfortunately, on the current trajectory, whichever way you look at it, that scenario is most certainly inevitable.
Geoff Barton is general secretary of the Association of School and College Leaders
