In a week when everyone’s been talking about a report that hasn’t been published, not many people are talking about one that was.

Yet this week’s Ucas publication - a survey of the qualifications held by the class of 2021 - tells us something significant about education and social mobility.

The figures show that of the 275,000 18-year-olds accepted on to courses, 50,000 held either Btecs only or a mixture of A levels and Btecs. That’s nearly a fifth of the cohort.

The significance of this is, of course, that the government intends to defund many Btecs and other applied general qualifications over the course of the next few years.

The problem with replacing Btecs with T levels 

Which leaves us with the obvious question of what happens to this very significant proportion of university entrants in the future?

The government’s answer is that these young people will take either A levels or the new T-level qualifications, into which it has invested so much political and financial capital, and progress either to higher education or apprenticeships.

The problem that the government - and the young people affected by this change - will face is whether this binary choice will provide the opportunities that currently exist through applied general qualifications.

Because T levels are not the same sort of qualification as applied generals. They are very large programmes of study involving a commitment to an extensive work placement, and they are highly specialised around the industry covered by the T-level qualification.

For 16-year-olds who have an extremely clear view of what they want to do with their lives, they may be excellent qualifications. And the appeal to industry of very well-trained young people with good technical skills in their chosen vocation is obvious.

But what of those young people - and there are many of them - who are not so sure of what they want to do at the age of 16?

And key stage 4, with its obsession with box-ticking English Baccalaureate subjects and its aversion to technical and vocational courses, is no help for young people in making their post-16 choices.

Choice matters 

That’s why applied generals matter. They are proven and established vocational qualifications that provide students with a high degree of flexibility about their future choices. They work well for this very large group of students.

The risk is that neither A levels nor T levels will be suitable or attractive to them, and they will end up disengaged and potentially fall out of education altogether.

There are no prizes for guessing the students most likely to be affected by this change.

As a useful briefing paper in the House of Commons Library notes, the government’s own impact assessment acknowledges that students with  special educational needs or disabilities or who are from deprived areas are disproportionately represented on courses at risk of losing funding, and some might be unable to achieve a level 3 qualification in the future.

And research published by the Social Market Foundation in 2018 showed that students accepted to university from working-class backgrounds and/or minority ethnic backgrounds were more likely to hold a Btec qualification than their peers.

So there is very clearly a tremendous risk that the government’s plan will end up eroding social mobility and opportunities for disadvantaged young people. It is not exactly in keeping with the mantra about “levelling up”.

A disappearing ray of light 

There was - as many Tes readers will remember - a hopeful ray of light from education secretary Nadhim Zahawi in November when he announced that the reform timetable would be delayed by a year.

However, the plan itself appears to remain intact and the days of many applied general qualifications seem to be numbered.

Recently a parliamentary petition to reverse this plan and protect student choice attracted more than 100,000 signatures, passing the threshold to be considered for a debate in Parliament. We can only hope that this now takes place and it helps to focus the minds of ministers on the risks of pressing ahead with the defunding of applied general qualifications.

This week’s Ucas figures reinforce the risk that the government will be taking if it goes ahead with jettisoning the majority of applied general qualifications.

In the future, some of those young people will, of course, still find their way to university through other qualifications, while others will go on to apprenticeships.

But others will not, and it is the spectre of a potentially large number of young people being left to drift into uncertain waters - many of them from disadvantaged backgrounds - that looms over this plan.

Time for a rethink

There is still time and opportunity for the government to rethink its plans and do the right thing for these young people. It surely doesn’t have to be a case of a binary choice between A levels and T levels. There is no obvious reason why applied generals could not continue to exist in the new landscape.

Students would then be able to choose from three pathways - A levels, T levels or applied generals - the courses that most suit their aspirations and aptitudes. This would be a genuinely positive step forward that would enhance, rather than restrict, students’ pathways into the next phase of their lives.

So, in a week when everyone’s talking about a report we haven’t seen, let’s focus on one that we have.

And, in turn, on a day when there’s lots of speculation about another government U turn, let’s hope that the many previous U turns in education (on free school meals, closures, exams, face coverings) lead to a welcome one now - one done in the name of education and social mobility, rather than prime ministerial scalp-saving.

The government needs to U- turn on applied general qualifications in order to protect student choice.

Geoff Barton is general secretary of the Association of School and College Leaders