New figures uncovered by Tes Scotland show that the number of primary headteacher vacancies nationally is outstripping the number of staff with the mandatory Into Headship qualification, prompting members of a Scottish government working group on recruitment and retention of school leaders to question if there is “a real risk” of a headteacher shortage.
In some authorities the data shows at least twice as many primary headteachers leave their roles on average every year compared with the number of staff who achieve Into Headship.
The knock-on effect, according to primary school leaders body AHDS, is that, increasingly, new school leaders are having to undertake Into Headship at the same time as taking on their first headteacher post.
It is possible to take on a headship without the Into Headship qualification - which is the main route to achieving the Standard for Headship - but the qualification must be completed within 30 months.
AHDS says this is ratcheting up the pressure these new headteachers are under - and putting others off seeking the top job in school.
In some councils, trouble recruiting primary headteachers has led to the introduction of “executive headteachers”, who lead multiple schools across primary and secondary sectors.
The remit of the government’s headteacher recruitment and retention working group is to “develop an action plan to help improve the recruitment and retention of headteachers in Scotland”.
To this end, data was compiled for councils this year to help them “in planning for the future supply of headteachers”.
It is this data that lays bare the mismatch between the number of vacancies arising in Scottish primary schools and the number of staff achieving the Into Headship qualification.
The figures show that, on average, 160 primary headteachers leave their roles every year across Scotland but just 129 school staff achieve Into Headship.
The minutes from the 9 May meeting of the headteacher recruitment and retention working group show that members questioned if there was “a real risk that the pipeline of people coming through [Into Headship] does not meet the number of vacancies available”.
Highland and Edinburgh had, on average, twice as many primary headteachers leave as had been trained through Into Headship. Scottish Borders was found to have an average of six primary heads leave every year but just one trained every year via Into Headship.
This week, Scottish Borders Council issued a press release saying it would be holding a recruitment event for aspiring headteachers on Saturday and on Friday 15 September.
It has vacancies for seven primary headteachers and two secondary headteachers. The authority says it is optimistic the posts can be filled - not least because of its highly regarded digital learning offer.
Nevertheless, when one of the primary headteacher roles was advertised ahead of the summer break there were not enough applications to move forward.
Responding to the figures showing the small number of primary staff achieving Into Headship every year in the authority, a council spokeswoman said the number of participants was growing and that a total of 28 staff had completed the qualification, with a further 10 currently working towards it.
She added: “A number of our staff are enrolled on other leadership programmes with Education Scotland and on the postgraduate courses with the University of Edinburgh. We also deliver a comprehensive induction programme for all new headteachers.”
However, according to AHDS general secretary Greg Dempster, with not enough primary staff going through the Into Headship programme nationally, new headteachers are increasingly taking on acting positions and completing the qualification at the same time, which is increasing the strain on those new to the role and putting off others from pursuing headship roles.
He said: “To complete Into Headship at the same time as becoming a headteacher for the first time is a massive ask and makes the already considerable workload associated with the role of headteacher - which is often what puts people off seeking promotion in the first place - even bigger.
“Acting headteachers and promoted staff who aspire to become headteachers need protected time to undertake Into Headship. Candidates need blocks of time away from school scheduled for Into Headship work. Members tell us that the workload of the day job as well as Into Headship - particularly if in an acting headteacher role - is untenable and does prevent candidates from coming forward.”
The figures compiled for councils show that of the 2022-24 Into Headship cohort, roughly a fifth (45 out of 244 participants) were in acting headteacher roles when they embarked on the course. The vast majority (39 of the 45 acting heads) were working in primary.
Dempster said the figure now will be higher than that because Into Headship participants often take on acting headteacher roles as they progress through the qualification. But Into Headship was designed to be undertaken before taking up the post.
He added that there needs to be a surplus of primary staff with the qualification in the system so that when recruiting, councils have a choice of candidates, as there is in secondary.
The national data for secondary shows a contrasting picture: an average of 32 secondary headteachers leave their post every year and an average of 51 complete Into Headship every year.
Into Headship - a master’s-level qualification - has been mandatory in Scotland for new headteachers since August 2020. It is an Education Scotland leadership programme that is delivered via seven universities across the country.
A new evaluation of the programme published earlier this year described it as “a programme worthy of national and international recognition”, but also highlighted the tremendous pressure that school leaders are under and the “genuine concerns” about the extra workload generated by the course.
Responding to the concerns about headteacher supply - as well as the pressure new headteachers are being put under - an Education Scotland spokesperson said the programme was “for those who are two to three years away from a headteacher role” and that local authorities were “responsible for leading on recruitment to the programme”.
She added: “Within the latest cohort, 14 per cent of participants have identified as being in an acting headteacher role, a reduction over recent years, and we continue to work closely with all partners to provide support with succession planning where appropriate.”
