When asked straightforwardly if they support prime minister Rishi Sunak’s proposal of requiring 16-to-18-year-olds to study maths, five expert witnesses at one of the Commons Education Select Committee’s recent hearings all answered “yes”, albeit caveated with a “but”. 

Among the “looks good on paper” reasons for pursuing this policy, other reasons include that those who study additional maths go on to have higher earnings on average; that the UK is an outlier in how few pupils pursue maths to 18; and that, in many countries, numeracy is linked to higher productivity. 

Raising a generation of young adults to be more proficient at maths should only be a good thing. But the reality is that this reform contains within it multiple possible reforms, and there are a number of entrenched problems that will need addressing, lest we put the cart before the horse. 

Changing cultural perceptions of maths

One of our witnesses, Sir Martin Taylor, chair of the Royal Society’s Advisory Committee on Mathematical Education, told us his organisation’s research found that 40 per cent of pupils studying maths already lack confidence in the subject. 20 per cent also felt “anxious most of the time”, while 10 per cent said they “hate” maths.

Sir Martin was concerned about cultural attitudes, saying: “In England, I have never ever heard people discuss mathematics in a positive way...I have never met someone who has said: ‘I have never read Jane Austen’. They would not want to admit to that, but they are ever so happy to say: ‘I hate mathematics, I never liked it.’” 

We also heard that another all-important factor in considering the “maths to 18” proposal, which many across the sector were quick to point out when the prime minister announced it in January, is the ongoing shortage of maths teachers.

This in itself can lower pupils’ confidence in studying maths even up to 16.  

Jack Worth, school workforce lead at the National Foundation for Education Research, told us that modelling published by the Department for Education previously indicated about 3,000 additional maths teachers should be hired every year for the next decade in order to meet demand.

But, for reasons the DfE has not made public, that target was cut to 2,000.  

Addressing teacher shortages

Niamh Sweeney, deputy general secretary of the NEU teaching union, told us: “The government has missed its target on recruiting new maths teachers every year for the last 11 years.”

As Tes readers may well know, it has become common in some schools for some of those teaching maths to actually be teachers of other subjects.

Another of our witnesses, Sam Sims, chief executive at National Numeracy, pointed out that even teachers themselves find maths an anxiety-inducing subject.

He told us we need to be conscious of how it can make pupils feel, and what it subtly communicates to them, if they cotton on that even their teachers view the subject as something that it is normal, even okay, to struggle with or dislike. 

Given the current difficulties, we must hear more from ministers on whether the proposal to extend maths to 18 will require more maths teachers to be recruited.

If so, the department will have to show its working out in terms of how this will be done, against high odds. 

Differentiating for ability

My colleagues and I also wanted to hear what form this extra maths should take for children of different abilities.

This opened up the question of whether further study should be of purely academic maths, such as with A-level maths, or of numeracy, with elements of functional skills that can re-engage students and be applied to everyday life - managing finances and budgeting or pursuing mathematical skills closely linked with their other studies.

Could a passport-style certificate of competence be rolled out to sixth forms instead of a broader adoption of A-level maths?

What came through loud and clear was the worryingly high number of children who fail to achieve a level 4 in GCSE maths and end up resitting exams time and again.

Sir Martin told us that only one in four GCSE maths resits are successful, including among pupils who have already taken multiple resits.

Kevin Gilmartin, post-16 specialist at the Association of School and College Leaders, said he once had a sixth-form pupil who resat their GCSE maths seven times.

More information required 

Should the prime minister’s policy come to fruition, we would surely want to avoid a situation that merely extends many students’ negative experiences with the subject. 

My committee would welcome clarification from the government on whether it intends to make maths or numeracy a central focus of these reforms, their plans for the workforce who will teach whatever qualifications need to be delivered, and what support could be built into the school system for children who don’t meet the required grade 4 pass in GCSE maths. 

Like our witnesses, I too support the prime minister’s idea in principle.

And - going back to Sir Martin’s point on how socially acceptable it may be to espouse one’s dislike of maths - I can assure you that that’s coming from someone who didn’t have a natural affinity with the subject either.

So I look forward to hearing more from the government on how they will make this policy add up, and we will scrutinise those plans in detail. In the meantime, we await a response from education secretary Gillian Keegan to our letter, which outlined these considerations. 

Robin Walker is chair of the Commons Education Select Committee and former minister for school standards