Tomorrow, senior secondary students across Scotland will find out their Scottish Qualifications Authority (SQA) exam results - with teachers and school leaders also poised to see how their charges fared this year.
So what trends are likely to emerge from SQA results day 2024?
Higher pass rate likely to dip
At Higher, the pass rate is likely to fall again this year.
Since the exams returned in 2022 - following the cancellation of exams in 2020 and 2021 because of the pandemic, teacher-assessed grades and increased pass rates - the SQA has been gradually edging its way back to “normal awarding procedures”.
Last year, the pass rates for National 5 and Advanced Higher pretty much returned to pre-pandemic levels - but this was not quite the case for Higher.
The Higher pass rate in 2023 remained a couple of percentage points up on 2019, sitting at 77.1 per cent as compared to 74.8 per cent.
This year, we might expect it to drop slightly, nudging ever closer to the level seen on results day in 2019.
Grading approach to take account of ‘coursework return’
That said, the grading approach this year is supposed to be taking account of the return of coursework in many subjects and levels for the first time in 2023-24.
The Scottish Secondary Teachers’ Association hit out at the decision to bring back coursework, saying neither teachers nor students were ready for the extra demands of completing assignments and projects, which count towards final grades.
However, the SQA pushed ahead with its plans, sweetening the pill by saying it would “consider any impact” the reintroduction had through its “well-established grading processes”.
Still, the SQA has been gradually reducing the leeway it is prepared to give students post-Covid - which it does by adjusting grade boundaries.
In 2023, grade boundary adjustments were smaller than in 2022; the SQA will be keen to maintain that trajectory.
Impact on the attainment gap
What will all this mean for what is known by official terminology as the “poverty-related attainment gap”?
The pandemic-driven cancellation of national exams in 2020 and 2021 led to significant increases in the proportion of students from the most disadvantaged areas - in particular - gaining national qualifications, but the attainment gap grew again in 2022 after the return of exams.
Last year, at Higher, the gap in the A-C pass rate between the most and least deprived students was 16 percentage points - less than one percentage point off pre-pandemic levels (the attainment gap was 16.9 percentage points in 2019).
It seems likely it will remain around the same level this year. However, it is possible that the widely reported problems of persistent absenteeism and internal truancy - when pupils attend school but skip classes - could start to impact on the attainment gap, with the statistics showing students from deprived areas are absent more often.
Widespread dual presentation at National 4 and National 5
Another key question: will dual presentation at National 4 and 5 increase or decrease this year?
In January, education secretary Jenny Gilruth wrote to education directors saying that widespread dual presentation - where students are presented for National 4 and National 5 - should end. It was leading to “unnecessary additional workload” if a student was on track to achieve N5; conversely, the practice was damaging students’ confidence if they were not ready for N5.
Last year, around one in every 10 entries at N5 was entered for an N4 in the same subject.
However, at the point where Ms Gilruth wrote to education directors, she said preliminary SQA entry data for 2024 showed the trend “increasing further”.
Will her warnings and those of SQA chief executive Fiona Robertson have been heeded by schools? Tomorrow we should find out.
Marked papers to be available in some subjects
Also tomorrow, for the first time across the country, teachers in five subject areas will be able to access students’ marked exam papers in a trial being run by the SQA.
There are worries about the workload implications of the change and whether it will lead to teachers being asked to “verify SQA marked papers in pursuit of speculative appeals”, as the EIS teaching union has warned.
Again, this year appeals will be free of charge and students will be able to make an appeal directly to the SQA, without going through their school.
Penultimate exam results day for SQA
Looking ahead, more change is in the offing. The government plans to replace the SQA with a new body called Qualifications Scotland by autumn 2025, meaning next year should be the last exam diet managed and overseen by the SQA.
Also to come, are any changes to assessment and qualifications to happen, triggered by Professor Louise Hayward’s independent review - which is now over a year old; the delayed Scottish government response is due early in the new school year. However, for better or worse, her recommendations - which included scrapping external exams for qualifications below Higher-level - are unlikely to impact on senior students for years to come, if at all.
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