International schools must prepare for numerous upheavals in the years ahead, including growing geopolitical tensions, post-scientific worldviews, a gloomy economic outlook and ongoing pupil wellbeing issues, according to the director-general of the International Baccalaureate (IB).

Speaking at the 2023 World Education Summit, Olli-Pekka Heinonen outlined what he sees as the five biggest issues facing the sector and why leaders in schools around the world must have their eyes open to these issues and how they may unfold.

1. Politics and a post-truth world

The first key issue he outlined was the “tension” in the geopolitical divide being seen around the world between open, democratic nations and those with more authoritarian regimes, and how education was often involved in this ideological battle.

“We’re seeing that trend of democratic societies and societies that are based on a more authoritarian leadership and that polarisation actually affects international education quite strongly. Because it means that there is also a danger that it will become a piece of that struggle,” he said.

“What we’re seeing in many places is that there is actually less room for international schools because the national perspective and policy want to control the education system.”

Within this, he also said there could be “curriculum issues” for schools, such as where nations are “rewriting history” and that leads to questions about what the “curriculum can say about history or some other issues” related to this.

Even more fundamentally, he said there has been a “deterioration of the scientific worldview” that has been the basis for much of how education has formed, and now there are numerous competing views that could make it harder for education to progress.

“There are several knowledge bases for sensemaking - of course, the scientific still - but we are seeing, for example, different religious backgrounds, we’re seeing the postmodern ‘there is no truth and everything is just about perspectives and opinions’ and we have the question of indigenous knowledge bases, [and] we’re starting to see that there is more value in the wisdom of those perspectives.

“So there’s the question of how we make sense of that kind of a world? Because it’s very difficult to disagree if there is nothing that you agree on - and it’s a very deep philosophical question, but I’m afraid that we cannot escape it.”

2. Economic woes and elitist perceptions

The second issue he highlighted was the “gloomy economic forecasts” and how this would invariably hit international schools - and potentially reignite views that it is only for the “elite”, rather than being open to as many families as possible, which has been key to the growth of the sector in the last 10 years.

“When it comes to public spending, for example, around the globe, an era of austerity will mean that households will have fewer resources to use for their children’s education.

“That’s something that I think we have to just be aware of and I think there’s that tension for international education [and it’s important] it does not get the reputation of being only for the few elites but is something that is for a larger portion [of society].”

He said a major concern to this could be that international schools come to be seen as making the learning divide between different sections of society worse - rather than “doing our best to help solve it”.

3. A hybrid and digital future?

The next question he said the sector needed to think carefully about was how hybrid and digital education models took shape.

“I think one of the big questions that will affect the next five years is: where does it settle with the hybrid model of education? What is the balance between the physical, the virtual and the digital?

“There won’t be only one solution on that, but there will be several different solutions - there will be more variation, more different types of ways for schooling.”

Heinonen went on to explain that this could well mean that “entirely online schooling” springs up and, as a result, digital exams and degrees, too - something the IB itself is preparing for with plans for digital assessments.

4. Teaching for an unknown world

Fourthly, Heinonen said that, for education, there would be a challenge of ensuring the education models and curriculums being used are fit for purpose, and are able to prepare pupils for the future when what that may look like is so unknowable.

“Education systems have been built on the idea that we believe that we know what comes next because we’re teaching for the future of the students and the learner,” he said.

However, he said now the complexity of the world and the pace of change made it almost impossible for educators to do this and so the “inter-generational transfer” of knowledge that worked in the past is less certain.

Heinonen said: “It’s still important that we transfer everything that humanity has been able to create. So far, all the sciences, all the art, all the kinds of ways of living cultures - but it’s not enough.

“We have to, in a separate way, take care of how we help the new generations to build their own future. I think that will be a change that will also take tens of years for education systems to understand.”

5. Pupil wellbeing concerns

Finally, and linked to this, he said pupil wellbeing cannot be ignored and has to be integrated into education and schooling as standard.

“It’s a serious question because I think that if we don’t do it well, I’m fearing there could be a phenomenon where young people are starting to feel hostile towards older generations.

“I think we need to also look in the mirror. We created a world that the young generations find difficult to cope with. And what can we do about that?”

Expanding on this, he said he recognised some teachers would query if it was their job to be responsible for the wellbeing of pupils, but he said that given how fundamental this is to learning, it is not something educators can afford to ignore.

“Understandably, a lot of teachers are saying that no, that’s not our task. We are here for learning, not for the wellbeing part and I understand that but if the wellbeing is not there, the learning is not there.

“I think we have to find new ways of how we take care of it in the school staffing. I think we would need better interprofessional collaboration in schools, bringing in different professions to support the wellbeing and the learning.”

He said this did not just refer to using health or social specialists to work with individual pupils but also how those “professionals can help teachers to cope with those questions all the time in their classes with their pupils”.

Olli-Pekka Heinonen was speaking at the World Education Summit. Tes is the official media partner for the event. To find out more and access the rest of the week’s sessions, click here