One of the biggest education issues the next government faces will be the state of special education needs sufficiency in England.

Statistically, the number of education, health and care plans (EHCPs) has been on an upward trajectory since the reforms were introduced in 2014, and it shows no sign of slowing down.

Meanwhile, funding is at its limit, with a cumulative debt of over £1.5 billion sitting across council high-needs budgets and many councils either declaring bankruptcy or teetering on the brink.

The absence of any additional education funding from the government also means schools know things are not going to get easier any time soon, leaving them at capacity and struggling to keep budgets under control.

A system that works against pupils with SEND

For trusts like ours, formed of 14 special schools and one mainstream school, we see these pressures first-hand.

For example, all of our schools have had to grow to meet the demand for more placements, with this growth typically not flowing from local authority long-term strategic sufficiency planning, and instead being arranged in the summer ahead of a September start.

None of this is good news for parents who rightly expect the state to meet the needs of their children by providing an accessible, relevant and enjoyable education.

If the next government is going to have any chance of recovering this issue, there needs to be some root cause analysis that recognises how mainstream education strategy over the last 14 years has shaped our reality today.

Ambitions for the many prioritised over the needs of the few

Now, arguing against high expectations in state education immediately opens one up to being decried as lazy, low in aspiration and not caring enough about children and what they can achieve. I get that.

However, the back-slapping on England’s position in the Programme for International Student Assessment rankings, for me, illustrates the point clearly about the big problem with our state education system.

It works for the vast majority of pupils, and the relentless pursuit of attainment and Progress 8 scores are clearly defined metrics that have enabled “robust” performance management in our high-stakes accountability system, with outcomes improving for many.

But the choice to focus on a narrower academic curriculum and testing regime comes at a cost: the marginalisation of a cohort of learners who cannot thrive without specialist provision, leaving ambitions for the many prioritised over the needs of the few.

Furthermore, with successive education secretaries praising models of behaviour management that place high demands of compliance on pupils, at the same time as the SEND Code of Practice putting forward a diagnosis of social, emotional and mental health as a recognised special educational need, is it any wonder we have so many more EHCPs with this diagnosis?

Rising needs unmet by the mainstream

The narrative here could be inferred as being that the increase in demand for special schools is because mainstream schools are choosing not to be inclusive.

That’s not true - many mainstream schools provide excellent special educational needs and disabilities (SEND) provision, often to their detriment (although it’s been said some do not).

But it is clear from the rising numbers of pupils entering specialist provision - when viewed through a lens of rising accountability pressures - that we must start questioning if our mainstream school system is truly set up to enable schools to provide for pupils with SEND.

What’s more, we need to think of the bigger picture, too - we are going through a period of increased understanding of (and diagnosing) SEND, yet our understanding of how to support these pupils remains in its infancy.

We cannot let the status quo continue

There is also a lot of anecdotal evidence that the prevalence of SEND is increasing and mainstream schools’ lived experiences of increased complexity are fair and accurate. Those are trends that go beyond education and into something deeper.

These are tough questions and issues to consider but they are vital. After all, all children deserve the chance to belong and thrive in our mainstream system - and if we can get that right for more pupils then we can reduce pressure on special schools, too.

The challenge for the next government will be to recognise this and put into action policy changes that do something about it. It will take the best part of a full term in office for any new plans to bed in and for trust and confidence among schools, families and pupils to grow.

Doing that would be hard enough, but a more balanced assessment of school performance will also inevitably come with slings and arrows that claim it represents low aspirations that will fail children.

For me, though, the moral and financial imperative means that doing nothing and letting the status quo continue is simply not an option.

Warren Carratt is the chief executive of Nexus Multi-Academy Trust.

He will be one of the speakers at the National Network of Special Schools Conference 2024 in Manchester on Thursday 25 April. The NNoSS Conference is the only national event for school business professionals working in these unique settings. Book your ticket today.

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