A lot changed in education in the middle weeks of August. Some of the most powerful organisations in the system have been forced by pressure and events into embarrassing U-turns relating to qualifications. This has then had ripple effects into related policies. Student number controls have gone through the full policy life cycle in a few months. Off the agenda in March, policy in May, notified to institutions in June and cancelled in August.

The big changes and issues relate to qualifications. The immediate crisis has passed in that there are no longer algorithm protests outside Department for Education headquarters, but there is still fear, uncertainty and anger. The August results days used to be described as the “silly season” because of the way in which arguments about grade inflation swirled around the chat shows, while groups of students posed happily with their envelopes. It all feels more serious this time around. The U-turn on the algorithm has dented confidence in the decision-making and started a blame game about who got things wrong.

The official reviews have already started with the Commons Education Select Committee and the Office for Statistics Regulation being the two that are likely to set the pace. Ministers, Ofqual officials and others will have to account for their actions in public and to start the changes that rebuild confidence. It is difficult to know now where this might end but the speed with which Public Health England is being reformed shows that this government does not wait around.

The regulation of qualifications involves a complex legal architecture but there was already the possibility of legislation to put the planned FE White Paper into effect so we might now be looking at a more wide-ranging set of reforms. Who knows? We await events.

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Background: Almost half of colleges to make redundancies in 2020

This August’s merry-go-round has added an unhelpful new ingredient into an already difficult planning task for September. The government launched its school reopening campaign over the weekend with statements from chief medical officers and the prime minister. There is a big push to reassure parents and students, to support institutions and to address the concerns of teachers.

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The focus is on schools, but it’s always schools “and colleges” when you’re talking about 16- to 18-year-olds. The planning for September has been going on since April, which was the point when college leaders had to lift their heads from the here and now and start rewriting their 2020-1 plans. Editing of plans has had to continue on a weekly basis with another set of changes possibly required depending on precisely what the DfE does or doesn’t say. Not an ideal way to prepare for the new term, nor is it helpful that the backwash from the qualification issue continues. The return to centre-assessed grades has resulted in a small flood of queries and complaints at some colleges and schools, who are bearing the blame for following what they thought were the rules.

There is, meanwhile, a scramble for places at some universities, colleges and schools in a way that could make this September’s recruitment more chaotic than ever. As numbers go up in some places, they’ll go down in others, resulting in shifts in funding over the next 12 months. The case to support exceptional growth is hard to refute but the likely cuts to capacity are a worry.

The Association of Colleges has been flagging concerns about apprenticeships for months but the issue might prove to be wider for colleges. If recruitment is down in September, then a college often needs to act quickly to cut costs, which typically this means restructuring.

Around 46 per cent of college respondents to our July survey anticipated making redundancies between now and Christmas. Hopefully these were their worst cases but there will be times when colleges are cutting capacity in 2020 that they really should be keeping for the future. Many charities, businesses and public organisations face the same sort of problem in their sectors, but it’s an issue we need to watch closely in ours.

Finally, there is a wider context. The explosion of concern about their A levels, BTECs and university places takes place in a punctured economy with mass redundancies and few job openings. People want a good place to study because they know it will be hard to get work. There are few apprenticeship openings around.

Education feels like a safe harbour, but it will be education not quite as we know it because of Covid-safety requirements. It is hard to know quite what to expect but autumn may bring fears about infection second waves and more and wider lockdowns. Everyone needs to prepare themselves mentally for a bumpy ride while keeping a spirit of optimism that things can get better and that our individual and collective efforts make a difference.

Julian Gravatt is deputy chief executive of the Association of Colleges