The number of controversial “conditional unconditional” offers handed out by universities is likely to fall this year, Ucas has said.

Up to three-quarters of the institutions who made this type of offer in 2019 are expected to drop it this year, the admissions service is forecasting.

News: Hinds tells unis to stop ‘unethical’ strings-attached offers

Background: Unconditional A level uni offers rise to 38% of pupils

Related: How uni unconditional A-level offers undermine schools

A record one in four university applicants from England, Wales and Northern Ireland were given a “conditional unconditional” offer, in which students are guaranteed a place if they make an institution their first choice, last year.

But there has been a growing backlash against the practice, amid warnings that it can lead to would-be students making decisions that are not in their best interests, with sixth-formers taking their foot off the pedal and not achieving the grades in their A-levels or other qualifications they may have been expected to gain.

New data published by Ucas shows that in 2019, there were 35 universities and colleges where at least 1 per cent of offers made were “conditional unconditional”.

Of these, there were eight institutions were over 50 per cent of offers made were “conditional unconditional”.

Seven of these universities and colleges were larger institutions, while one was a smaller institution that accepted less than 500 students on to its courses (regardless of offer type) in total.

Ucas said its data indicates a significant change regarding “conditional unconditional” offers, and forecast that as many as 75 per cent of those institutions who made at least some of these offers last year will not make them in 2020.

Clare Marchant, Ucas chief executive, said: “The university and college-level data we are releasing today from 2019 provides a more detailed look at the increase in the number of conditional unconditional offers.

“However, early indications point very strongly to a behaviour change in 2020.

“We forecast as many as 75 per cent of universities and colleges which made conditional unconditional offers in the 2019 cycle will no longer make these in 2020.

“While we predict a fall in these types of offers, we will likely see universities and colleges deploy other offer making strategies, including direct unconditionals, in this competitive market.”

She added: “We are basing our forecast on conditional unconditional offers on three factors.

“Some universities and colleges have publicly said they no longer plan to make such offers, and this is repeated in statements included in our university and college-level data released today.

“Secondly, we monitor offer-making through the year and our early modelling shows the tide is turning.

“Finally, our analysis of applicant decisions in the 2019 cycle shows they were only marginally more likely to choose a conditional unconditional offer as their firm choice.

“We make this forecast because there is a lot of public debate on these types of offers, based on our data and insights.”

Education secretary Gavin Williamson said: “Under no circumstances are ‘conditional unconditional’ offers justified and I will write to all universities continuing them asking them to end this practice.

“We know students who accept unconditional offers are more likely to miss their predicted A levels.

“I welcome those institutions leading the way in committing to end these offers, but there is clearly more to do.”

Ucas data published last month showed that about a quarter - 25.1 per cent - of 18-year-old university applicants from England, Wales and Northern Ireland, some 64,825 students, received a “conditional unconditional” offer in 2019, up 4.2 percentage points from 20.9 per cent (53,355 students) in 2018.

Five years ago, in 2014, just 3.1 per cent of applicants received such an offer.