The 12th National Apprenticeship Week starts on Monday and the theme this year is blazing a trail. To quote the minister, this is about recognising “the change that apprenticeship can bring - for employers blazing a trail to new markets, apprentices to new career opportunities and for colleges and training providers raising the skills levels for everyone”.

Colleges have been blazing trails to apprenticeships for decades. The information we have at the Association fo Colleges suggests the sector is growing both in terms of the number of apprentices training and the income earned from the programme. Unfortunately, there are a couple of buckets of water poised to put out some of the fires that the campaign wishes to start.

Read more: Apprenticeships: Non-levy contracts to be extended

Opinion: ‘We have to widen access to apprenticeships’

Background: The apprenticeship levy a year on: lessons learned

Pouring cold water on apprenticeships

The first bucket of water is the new funding controls on training for small companies over the next 12 months. In the past few days, the Education and Sills Funding Agency has set out the funding arrangements for non-levy apprenticeships - the employers with annual payrolls below £3 million. It isn’t really very good news. Colleges and other providers have been increasing their training activity in the past few months but the budget is now maxed out.

The funding agency has promised to cover existing bills - subject to a bit of checking and audit - but has sent a clear message about the next 12 months. Whatever the rhetoric about apprenticeships being demand-led, next year’s contracts will be based firmly on last year’s activity with no room for growth in any circumstances. Many colleges had anticipated expanding apprenticeship volumes and, in some cases, agreed financial recovery plans with government officials that assumed such expansion. These now need a rethink.

Some colleges report six-figure shortfalls on their new allocations and need to start thinking about rationing places. At some point in the next few months, they’ll need to start turning people and companies away. Different rules apply for larger, levy-paying employers where the budget ceilings are much looser but the iron law of public spending is that budgets are fixed. There is, of course, a bigger water bucket in the background. The £2 billion or so set aside for English apprenticeship training from levy collections may not be quite enough for the demand that has been stoked up.

Employer commitment ‘at risk’

The reason for concern is Brexit. The entire apprenticeship reform strategy over the past five years has put employers in control. Employers devise the standards, fund the programme via the levy and have a wide span of control over both the employment and training contracts. There are plenty of rules and systems to protect the public purse but an employer-first philosophy has animated all parts of the reform programme with training provision seen as a subsidiary issue. There is something to be said for this approach because it helped to secure employer consent for the levy and employer engagement in the programme.

The UK has a flexible labour market with lots of time-limited contracts and sectors with high staff turnover. Apprenticeships need longer-term development, which implies a degree of employer commitment. And, right now, this is at risk in some areas. The UK is now just a few weeks away from an uncertain Brexit with the Bank of England governor offering one-in-four odds of a recession.

Even if everything goes well, there will be changes in the labour market with new jobs replacing old ones. Employer commitment is a vital factor for successful apprenticeships but the first priority should be the people who will be using skills over working lives of up to 50 years. Some employers, sadly, will be here today and gone tomorrow. Colleges, on the other hand, are here for the long term.

Julian Gravatt is deputy chief executive of the Association of Colleges