More than 96 per cent of sixth-form college principals say the actual A-level grades students will receive today are lower or much lower than the grades predicted by their teachers.

In a survey of principals conducted by the Sixth Form Colleges Association yesterday, 47 per cent said their grades were lower than what teachers had estimated, while 49.4 per cent said they were much lower. The remaining principals saw their results broadly in line with teacher assessment – with none finding actual results to be higher.   

More than a third of principals (34 per cent) said their overall exam results for this year were below their college’s historic exam performance. According to the SFCA, some sixth-form colleges reported that the results were the worst since records began, while others indicated that this year’s grades had reversed a trend of year-on-year improvement in performance. 

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“This suggests that the process for calculating grades this year, in the absence of exams, has failed to ensure performance is broadly in line with results over the previous three years – a key objective of this year’s process,” the report of the survey, to which 81 of the SFCA’s 106 member institutions responded, said.

A-level results 'flawed and unreliable'

Crucially, only just over half of principals (56 per cent) said their college held mock exams for all students this year. Yesterday, it was announced by the government that students might be able to use their mock exam result in a new “triple lock” process aimed at ensuring students are not disadvantaged by the calculated grades process.

Bill Watkin, chief executive of the Sixth Form Colleges Association said: “Our survey suggests that the government’s model for calculating this year's A-level grades is flawed and unreliable. A fundamental objective of the process was to ensure year-on-year comparability in exam results – the very clear evidence from our members is that the standardisation model has utterly failed to achieve this. While the national picture is likely to show no significant overall change in grades awarded this year, this average figure masks huge variations. Our members, who between them deliver a quarter of the A levels sat in England each year, have experienced inexplicable variations.

“The only way the government can rescue this situation, and ensure that thousands of students are not disadvantaged, is to base results entirely on centre-assessed grades – the predictions made by teachers. This is the only alternative to what has proved to be a failed experiment by the government to develop a fair process of standardisation.”

A spokesperson for Ofqual said: “Our standardisation model, for which we have published full details, does not distinguish between different types of centres, and therefore contains no bias, either in favour or against, a particular centre type.

“One of the factors for the increases in higher grades for some centres will be if they have smaller cohorts because teachers’ predictions are given more weight in these circumstances. Other factors will also have an effect, like potential changes in prior attainment profiles of students at key stage 2.”