Two in five A-level grades submitted by teachers have been changed following moderation, schools minister Nick Gibb said this morning.
The news means that, as reported by Tes more than a month ago, England will have far more grade changes than the 26 per cent in Scotland, which provoked huge controversy and yesterday's U-turn north of the border.
Teacher-assessed grades, moderated by statistical modelling, were introduced in both countries following the coronavirus cancellation of exams. But fears have been growing of a backlash when A-level results are released tomorrow.
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Speaking on BBC Radio 4, Mr Gibb said: "The majority of students tomorrow will get the grade submitted by their teachers.
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"Those 40 per cent that are adjusted will be by just one grade."
Tes first reported fears that two in five A-level and GCSE teacher-assessed grades could be moderated downwards in early July, as insiders shared concerns that this summer’s results would be a “shock”, predicting a backlash because they could look “terrible”.
Previous modelling by FFT Education Datalab had found that teacher-assessed GCSE grades were higher than 2019 scores, and that up to a third could be inflated.
Exam board modelling had backed up that level of disparity but insiders had said it may well be higher still, with 40 per cent of grades being changed a "likely" outcome.
