Well, well, well. Put your scenario planning on ice. We have a coalition, of sorts.
The Conservatives, backed by the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) in a “confidence and supply” arrangement, will form the next government. What might this mean for education?
I am not the first to point this out, but this result makes the expansion of grammar schools near to impossible, even if the DUP, as is likely, supports such plans. There is simply no mandate.
I think most of the profession will welcome this and feel confident about contesting any attempt to take this further. Let the debate move on to the real problems we face.
It is also clear now that the funding campaign cut through. The head’s letters, the School Cuts website, the parent groups, the union campaigns. They put school funding on the agenda and it may well have changed some minds. That’s a very exciting thought.
This doesn’t necessarily mean that we will be offered a solution. But should we face another election in the near future, we may see far better policies on funding. The campaign should continue forcefully to ensure this is so.
Sadly, this result does mean the likely demise of the funding formula. This is not a positive.
The problem with funding was not the formula but with the amount of money coming in in the first place. Those schools who were historically under-funded remain stranded.
For the immediate future, no government will have a strong enough position to steer such a difficult reform to completion.
New generation
Youth turnout was very high. All I can say to this is: congratulations.
Schools have done their job to support a generation of engaged and informed young voters. It is their future at stake in elections and they needed to take ownership.
Beyond that, we will learn more in the coming days.
It may be that Justine Greening’s position is more tenable. The primary assessment consultation is already in train and should continue. But we have to expect some level of stasis.
To the extent that this prevents bad policies from happening, that might be a good thing. To the extent that it prevents meaningful solutions to deep problems, it will soon become a frustration. There is work to be done.
As I said in last week’s Tes, if you planned to steer your school by the star of government policy, you will follow a very unsteady course indeed. That star has just become further obscured in the murk.
So, polish up your moral compass and keep using that as your guide.
Fill the vacuum with your own vision and keep doing what you know is right. Perhaps, one day, we will have a government that can keep up with you.
Don’t go silent either. The public want to hear from you: they are looking for leadership, so keep shaping the debate.
Russell Hobby is outgoing general secretary of the NAHT heads’ union. He tweets @russellhobby
