Random events that take place on the day of a pupil’s final exams can affect their earnings a decade later, according to a new study.

A report by the London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE), the University of Warwick and the Hebrew University of Jerusalem, has found that pupils exposed to high pollution levels on the day of their final exams suffered “lasting damage to [their] post-secondary educational attainment and earnings later in life”.

Taking an exam on a polluted day, caused by forest fires and sandstorms in Israel, was associated with a 3.8 per cent decline in a student’s test scores, with boys and students from low socio-economic backgrounds affected more, the researchers found. Exposure to pollution was associated with a 2.1 per cent drop in monthly earnings in adulthood, they concluded.

Dr Sefi Roth, assistant professor of environmental economics at the LSE, said the findings suggested that “the use of high-stakes exams as a primary method of testing students may be unfair.”

“When the stakes are high, there can be permanent consequences for the individual and for society. Students can have a bad test result due to random factors outside their control.”

“Examination candidates can have a bad day for many reasons unrelated to knowledge, skill, or cognitive ability,” the report’s summary said. “Possible causes include minor infection, migraine, hay fever, menstruation, disturbed sleep, and atmospheric pollution.

“When the stakes are high, as with exams used to rank students or admit them to further training or employment, there can be permanent consequences for the individual and for society.”

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