In the days after 9/11, the civil service infamously emptied the shelves of Waterstones on Trafalgar Square of all the books on Afghanistan and Islamist terrorism. While it had been an issue in the past, events meant that, suddenly, more people needed to know a lot more, pretty quickly.
My guess is that if I wandered in there this afternoon, the section on Irish politics would be similarly bare.
I’m guessing that the feeling of dread, sparked at about 11pm last night among Department for Education officials nominally responsible for preparing briefings on the Labour manifesto, has passed; that work would look like a top-of-the-class project compared with the attention that was given to what the DUP said on education. Indeed, I’m told that the DUP website crashed this morning due to the surge of officials in Westminster (and journalists) frantically downloading the manifesto.
“What’s that, permanent secretary? You’re after some briefing for senior officials on what the party’s positions are? Sure, absolutely. Give me just one second… hang on… hmm, can’t seem to find that paper I, erm, totally wrote a while back. Give me, um, half an hour and I’ll find it for you.”
To be fair, if the combined wisdom of the prime minister, her top advisers, all the campaign teams across all the major parties and the combined efforts of the Westminster lobby didn’t see anything like this coming, it’s perhaps reasonable for the civil service to be caught similarly on the hop.
What will it all mean for education? Well, anyone who tells you they know for certain is lying. But I think we can make a couple of educated guesses.
Firstly, and most importantly, nothing major will happen. By which I mean the enthusiasm, and votes, for a big education push or even any new legislation simply won’t be there. The cabinet has already been burned several times during the May premiership into advocating things that suddenly got kiboshed. The secretary of state, whoever that is, is now in a much stronger position to stick the middle finger up to No 10 on grammars should they be so inclined (and they should be - regardless of the merits of the policy, the politics suck, and it would be career suicide to try to implement some of that now). For the second time in a year, the Tory manifesto will be worthless.
Secondly, to the extent that things do happen, it will be Labour that makes the running. There were gales of laughter in SW1 when Corbyn claimed credit for scrapping the plans to turn all schools into academies. But the school funding crisis, driven by an outstanding campaign led by the unions, has genuinely been opposition-led and has completely put the government on the back foot. The funding formula reform is dead - again - because May can’t afford to alienate the F40. But there may need to be some sort of budgetary goodness for schools more broadly now to meet Labour demands - though God knows how the Treasury will pay for it amid the Brexit-driven economic slowdown that looks likely. A cheaper alternative would be that free infant school lunches will stay around for a little while and could even be extended to all, as per Labour and Lib Dem commitments.
Thirdly, watch for ‘thoughtful’ or ‘wide ranging’ speeches, pamphlets and other helpful contributions from big Tory beasts in the next year or so, which cover education. My central assumption is that May will stick around, wounded, for the next couple of years to do the Brexit deal - no one else in the Cabinet will really want to own that. Then there will be another leadership contest. If the 2017 election analysis does show that the young, the liberal and the moderates turned out across a slew of English seats to boost Corbyn, then that’s a demographic that needs some Tory focus. Bold education plans from would-be Tory leaders and prime ministers are an obvious part of that.
The secret adviser works in Westminster, having spent several years working in education on both the political and non-political side, in charities and on campaigns, and has worked with ministers of all political parties
