The coronavirus pandemic could lead to tens of thousands of extra learners resitting English and maths at college, with almost 120,000 possible in an extreme scenario, new analysis suggests.

A report from Education Policy Institute indicates that this coming year there may be around 123,000 16- or 17-year olds who would normally find employment, and who, as a result of the coronavirus pandemic, could choose to remain in education instead.

Of them, more than two-thirds will not have passed English and maths, the analysis suggests, meaning that if these young people did opt to come back to the education system to avoid unemployment, most would be required to continue to study these subjects.

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According to the EPI, around a quarter of them would need to work towards securing a pass in GCSE rather than taking separate functional skills qualifications. “Furthermore, if young people actually find it harder rather than easier to find an apprenticeship, although not all would return to full-time education, there could be up to another additional 32,000 students facing GCSE study,” it says.

Will coronavirus lead to a surge in GCSE resits?

EPI states that in a typical year, around 100,000 16- to 18-year olds would study towards an English resit qualification, and nearly 150,000 would study towards a maths resit qualification. “However, following a surge in numbers, in the most extreme case, there could be an additional 119,000 16- or 17-year olds required to continue with these subjects next year. Even if only half of those in other routes returned to education, this could still mean there would be nearly 60,000 extra students,” says the report.

Sam Tuckett, senior researcher at EPI and author of the report, said: “Many low-attaining young people who would ordinarily opt for employment after taking their GCSEs will face a difficult choice in the coming months: navigate an uncertain labour market amid a severe recession or remain in education and face English and maths resits.

“Faced with the prospect of unemployment, it is likely that we will see a surge in the number of young people choosing to remain in education. Given this is likely to place additional pressure on colleges, the government should be prepared to offer further support to the sector.

“The prime minister’s ‘apprenticeships guarantee’ has the potential to alleviate these problems by offering an alternative route to thousands of young people, but it remains unclear how such a scheme would be implemented”.  

Michael Lemin, senior policy specialist at NCFE, said: “We welcome this timely study on GCSE resits by the Education Policy Institute. The challenge facing the FE sector is twofold. Not only does the government need to guarantee catch-up funding for 16-year-olds who have received little help to achieve a grade 4 or higher in English and maths, there is also the consideration that due to the economic downturn caused by coronavirus, that up to 125,000 more 16 and 17 year-olds, who would usually seek employment, might choose to remain in full time education.

“Creating space within full time education to support these young people and help to avoid a rise in youth unemployment is undoubtedly something we support, however this in itself presents challenges, as many 16-17 year olds who enrol on full time study programmes will be required to resit their maths and English GCSE to get a grade 4 or higher.

“Through our #FullyFunctional campaign, NCFE has previously highlighted that the rate of learners achieving a pass for the resit cohort are very low. If these pass rates fall any further due the challenges around centres delivering to a larger cohort, there is a risk that we are setting learners up to fail. Perhaps more concerning, is the suggestion that learners may be put off continuing in education due to this well-intentioned policy. The DfE should urgently consider relaxing the GCSE resit requirement in light of the potential impacts this research highlights.”