Those working in education are fully aware of the growing workforce pressures facing the profession. However, are we justified to speak of a teaching crisis?

Analysis published by Education Policy Institute last week brought together the most recent available data on the teacher labour market, and looked to provide a clear picture of what we can expect in the coming years.

A look at the latest data on the projected rises in pupil numbers puts into perspective the scale of the challenge around the corner: we found that the number of pupils in secondaries is expected to swell by 20 per cent by 2026. To avert increasing class sizes, the number of teachers would need to rise by a similar amount.

However, upon assessing current teacher recruitment and retention trends, this seems quite unlikely.

To begin with, we know that teacher exits are on the rise. In secondaries, between 2010 and 2016, rates for those leaving the profession increased from 9.5 per cent to 10.5 per cent - with many abandoning teaching very early on in their careers. Of particular concern is the 80 per cent of exits due to movements to other jobs. In some subjects, many graduates are lured away by the fact that they can earn higher salaries outside of teaching.

To compound this problem, the latest figures show that teacher training figures are down by a third. Providers may still be able to meet their targets, but probably only if they lower the bar to entry. This could obviously be concerning for the quality of teaching in schools.

When we turn to recruitment, some subjects are suffering more than others, with targets repeatedly missed over the past few years. Last year only about 80 per cent of training placement targets were filled in maths, chemistry and geography - in physics, just 70 per cent of targets were met.

Teacher retention must be the priority

To counter these pressures, schools have been faced with two clear options: increase teacher hours or bring in staff with lower qualifications. Currently, we see a mixed picture with the number of degree-level or highly qualified teachers roughly stable, or even growing in some subjects. Other subjects, however, have been marked by decreases - including geography and, again, physics - where there have been falls between 2010 and 2016.

With exits from the profession up, entrants down, and uncertainty around the provision of highly qualified staff, what can policymakers do to steer the teacher labour market away from this potentially harmful course?

Recent efforts have focused on boosting recruitment in some subjects through the provision of bursaries, though there is little evidence of much success here. The evidence on tackling growing teacher shortages instead points to policies that prioritise keeping the existing workforce in the profession.

Here, the government is trialling student loan reimbursement programmes for teachers in the early stages of their careers, in subjects where there are shortages. While in general the piloting of these new measures should be welcomed, the system is relatively complex and will be of little benefit to most teachers at the start of their career.

The answer to improving retention rates and offering a degree of stability to the labour market may, in fact, lie in targeted financial incentives in shortage subjects - a policy for which there is strong empirical evidence. This, of course, looks undeliverable in the present climate of financial constraints - and rests on the removal of the public sector pay cap for schools. If the government does decide to make a move here, it would be wise to consider targeting some of the additional funds on salary supplements for early career teachers in these shortage subjects.

The latest teacher trends tell us that on practically every measure, the profession is in deep water. To safeguard educational outcomes, the government must consult the available evidence on the state of the labour market and act swiftly. Failure to do so could mean that these unwelcome projections for the future of the workforce quickly become reality.  

Luke Sibieta is a research fellow at the Education Policy Institute