It is 9 June and a general election called by an increasingly self-confident and powerful female prime minister is taking place. Labour has moved well to the left and its leader is seen by few people as a potential occupant of 10 Downing Street. The third party has very small representation in the House of Commons and, although it is expected to increase its number of MPs, it is seen as unlikely to make the big breakthrough that would offset the likely decrease in Labour MPs. The opinion polls have for some time been showing a large lead for the Conservatives, so the prime minister has seen the opportunity to build a big majority in the Commons by calling an election.

It was 1983 and there are strong parallels with 2017, even down to the week in which the election takes place. Then the Conservatives were elected with 42 per cent of the vote and a majority of 144, giving Margaret Thatcher the mandate for radical right-wing measures to deal with an economic crisis, high unemployment and restive trade unions.

But what of education policy? Are there lessons to be learned from 1983 about what might happen in 2017?

Thatcher’s secretary of state

The free market thinker, Sir Keith Joseph, who was a strong influence intellectually and politically on Margaret Thatcher, had been secretary of state for education for two years, during which time the government had begun to take an interest in the school curriculum, publishing The School Curriculum (1981) and requiring local authorities to review curriculum policies in the light of it. Pilots started for the Technical and Vocational Education Initiative (TVEI). The government was - gently by recent standards - becoming more assertive about what had previously been seen as the professional territory of teachers.

Sir Keith Joseph tended to take a long time over decisions and it was only after the 1983 general election that he began to apply free market ideas to education and attempt to reduce the role of the state. School funding began to fall, as Joseph failed to fight the Treasury on behalf of schools.

On the credit side, Joseph drew attention to the poor attainment of ‘the bottom 40 per cent’ and the need to have an exam that they could aim for. He approved the replacement of O levels and CSE with the GCSE and started the move from norm-referenced to criterion-referenced exams at 16, thus enabling more young people to gain high grades and the nation to demonstrate system improvement.

Although he was (and still is) the longest serving secretary of state for education since 1944, Joseph’s achievement was more in laying the foundations for the reforms introduced from 1986 by his successor, the more dynamic Kenneth Baker.

Tracing the Baker reforms from their origin in the Joseph era, one can see that: the government’s work on the curriculum, alongside the detailed work of Her Majesty’s Inspectorate (HMI) in its Curriculum Matters papers - a series of 17 booklets published between 1984 and 1989 (the ‘raspberry ripples’, so called because of their pink and red covers) - led to the national curriculum of 1988; the publication of school inspection reports from 1984 was the precursor to Ofsted and more frequent inspections; the role of local education authorities, as they were known then, began a decline that continues to this day.

Increasing selection at 11 was not on the agenda; it was far too unpopular with parents to be reintroduced so soon after so many secondary schools had turned comprehensive (the largest number of conversions came when Margaret Thatcher was herself secretary of state for education.)

Instead, Joseph used free market devices such as open admissions to create a hierarchy of schools, with the political rhetoric of parental choice becoming, in reality, a system in which the most successful schools chose their pupils - selection of a different sort.

Repeating the reforms

As in 1983, a Conservative government in 2017, returning to power with a greatly increased majority, will be free to put in place a free market state secondary school system, increasing selection, creating a steeper hierarchy of schools and concentrating on the news headlines that accrue from secondary structural change, which puts at risk the opportunities for the many in the perceived interests of the few.

With Justine Greening’s lack of enthusiasm for this agenda, we could well have a different, more pro-selection secretary of state, seeking to make his or her mark within the average span of 2.2 years in post. With a big majority, we can expect to see more change alongside the implementation of the Gove-inspired changes to curriculum, examinations and accountability.

Teacher associations have been quick to send their manifesto ideas to the party leaders, with many similarities between them on the need to provide more funding, improve teacher recruitment and retention, stabilise the curriculum and have a better accountability system.

Campaigning on these issues will be important as the new government beds in, but there are some striking differences between 1983 and 2017, which present opportunities for the profession to influence the schools’ policy agenda at a more fundamental level.

1983 could be seen as the year when Thatcherism - as articulated especially by Keith Joseph - began to take a hold on government policies across the public services. In 2017, there is no over-riding philosophy of Mayism. Indeed, the current prime minister appears to be a pragmatist with no particular sense of direction, other than on Brexit. In this scenario, it will be easier for the profession to put its case issue by issue.

Looking at the evidence

The profession is better organised in 2017 than it was in 1983. The merger of NUT and ATL as the National Education Union and the emergence of a Chartered College of Teaching give cause for optimism.

The notion of a school-led system, with successful schools having influence well beyond their own areas, puts school leaders much more in the driving seat than they were 34 years ago.

There is a lot more evidence of what works in 2017 than there was in 1983, so it will be harder for the government to introduce politically-motivated policies for which there is no evidential support. Increasing selection is the prime example here.

Social media and 24-hour news subject government policies to much greater scrutiny than they had in 1983 and, as we have seen this week with its report on primary assessment, the Select Committee provides much stronger parliamentary investigation than used to be the case.

And finally, the general public demands higher standards from public services than it did in 1983, so there is a big opportunity for the profession to win public approval for its case, as it is currently seeking to do on school funding.

To win the support of the public and to gain the upper hand in the political debate about education, the profession will need to articulate clearly a vision for education that captures the imagination of the public and earns widespread support. The opportunity is there to be taken much more than it was in the comparable circumstances of 1983.

John Dunford is chair of Whole Education, a former secondary head, general secretary of the Association of School and College Leaders and national pupil premium champion. His book, the School Leadership Journey, was published in November 2016. He tweets as @johndunford

For more TES columns by John, visit his back-catalogue.