Coronavirus is first and foremost a public health crisis, but the economic effects have been profound.

A range of scary statistics illustrates the impact. GDP fell by 20 per cent in April, the sharpest drop on record. We had the second-largest rise in unemployment on record and claims for universal credit spiked to seven times their pre-crisis levels. More than 8 million workers were furloughed under the coronavirus job retention scheme, with around 5 million people working in lockdown sectors.

Governments across the UK are now taking steps to reopen the economy. So, is the worst over? Unfortunately, it may not be.

We don’t know how quickly the economy will bounce back given that some social distancing will remain in place. There is also the risk of a second peak of the virus, and the impact of transitioning to a new trading relationship with the EU from January.

News: Report calls for temporary jobs for young people

More: Mayors back 7-point recovery plan for apprenticeships 

Opinion: 'We must invest in our young people's future'

Learning and Work Institute’s new report, Emergency Exit, tries to look at the jobs crisis we face and how to tackle it.

The loss of jobs so far plus likely further job losses as the furlough scheme is withdrawn could take unemployment above four million. This could mean unemployment rates at their highest since the aftermath of the Great Depression. Based on previous recessions, it may take five years for the labour market to recover. And we risk young people and parts of the country where unemployment was already highest being hardest hit.

What can we do to prevent this?

Invest in job creation

The temptation for the government will be to increase investment in infrastructure and cut things such as national insurance bills for employers. But, while infrastructure investment is crucial for our future, it won’t create lots of jobs quickly. Cuts to national insurance are not generally effective in promoting job creation, particularly if businesses do not have sufficient demand for their goods and services. So we need to focus public investment in job-rich, shovel-ready schemes, introduce measures such as car and boiler scrappage schemes to stimulate job creation and look at hiring subsidies for employers that take on unemployed people.

Rapidly scale up employment support

We should intervene now to help furloughed workers at risk of losing their jobs to find new work, bring in the recruitment industry and other specialists to help those who have recently lost their jobs, and make sure those who had already been out of work for some time before the crisis hit don’t get left further behind.

We argue this should be underpinned by a job guarantee for those unable to find work – providing government funding to create six-month paid jobs. To see the impact this might have, look the Future Jobs Fund. Introduced in the last recession, this improved the employment prospects of young people and paid for itself.

Guarantee all young people the offer of a training place, apprenticeship or job

For some young people, staying in education longer is the right answer and could help to reduce some of our skills gaps with other countries. We need to invest in new training places and supporting young people to take them up. We should act to create more apprenticeships for young people. We suggest levy-payers could be allowed to use part of their levy funds to support the wages of young apprentices, with a £4,000 apprenticeship grant for small to medium-sized enterprises.

Our proposals involve spending around £5 billion over the next couple of years. That sounds like a lot, but isn’t when compared to the cost of emergency economic measures so far and the risks of not acting. The scale of our ambition should match the scale of our challenge.

We face a huge challenge ahead. Learning, skills and employment have a central role to play in tackling this challenge and doing so in a way that tackles the inequalities we came into the crisis with. It’s time for a plan for jobs that delivers opportunity for all.

Stephen Evans is chief executive of the Learning and Work Institute