Boris Johnson admitted at the daily press conference last night that it was now "inevitable" that there will be "many, many job losses" and that young people, in particular, would be affected by the economic fallout from Covid-19. He continued (or rambled): "So I think it’s going to be vital that we guarantee apprenticeships."

So not quite an announcement – yet – or one accompanied by a target or a promise to "do whatever it takes", but there was certainly a pledge that his government would continue to be "as activist and interventionist" as they had been so far in the crisis.

Coronavirus: 'I will look into an apprenticeship guarantee'

Background: Youth unemployment could rise by 600,000

News: Apprenticeship starts plummet during lockdown

Apprenticeship guarantee

It was prompted in last week’s liaison committee by an invitation from Robert Halfon, chair of the Commons Education Select Committee, that he should look at ideas such as an apprenticeship guarantee. According to Halfon, this should focus on "all young people between 16 and 25 (with the right qualifications) having access to an apprenticeship in a relevant business or social enterprise", with the £3 billion skills budget trailed in the 2019 Conservative manifesto paying for training costs.

That’s still more of an idea than an announcement. It’s a large target group and, according to Paul Johnson of the IFS, a "very big commitment". Given that wage costs will also need to be found, it’s not certain that £3 billion is going to be enough. Even less so if the government still wants to spend that money on adult retraining. But thankfully, so far at least, there are no targets like those made for testing or tracking and tracing. Nor are there claims that such an intervention will be world-beating, though I’m sure both will come in time.

The policy and financial detail will be left to Rishi Sunak and his emergency budget due in July and to Gavin Williamson. Both have often claimed that FE and apprenticeships are at the top of their priorities. Both should also be aware that apprenticeships – if meaningfully defined – depend on there being an employer to offer them and a job at the end. It follows that if there is to be any kind of guarantee then significant financial support must be offered to employers too. But even that still makes a guarantee exceptionally difficult to deliver. 

No one should dispute the size of the problem. There is a near consensus that young people are going to be among those most affected by Covid-19.  Danny Blanchflower and David Bell have described the effect on young people from immediate unemployment, reduced opportunities and longer-term "scarring". The Resolution Foundation has estimated that the pandemic could increase youth unemployment by 600,000 this year and disrupt young people’s prospects for far longer. 

Unfortunately, this is familiar policy territory and so there is much we can learn from previous interventions such as the Future Jobs Fund in 2008-10, the New Deal for Young People in 1997 and from numerous youth training schemes set up during the recessions of the 1980s. None were without fault, but neither scale nor ambition were amongst them.

So what are likely to be the most effective strategies and interventions? Apprenticeships are obviously one part of the answer. So, too, are degrees and universities - but the Department for Education is already committing to capping numbers this year and including full-time apprenticeships in those calculations. Over time, we know that demand for full-time education – including degrees – is likely to increase; even more so when other options weaken. But though demand for apprenticeships is also likely to go up, they will be much more scarce because of a weaker economy and labour market. In other words, these are opposite effects.

There are other good suggestions of which the PM and chancellor should take note. The Learning and Work Institute, is recommending intensive employment support for all unemployed young people, underpinned by a £1 billion Jobs Guarantee for those out-of-work for the longest. The Association of Colleges has recommended a "September Promise" as 100,000 16- to 25-year-olds) struggle to find meaningful employment as the economic shocks of Covid-19 are felt. 

These are both good ideas because they recognise the scale of the challenge and offer solutions that a government can underwrite and guarantee happen. That is simply not the case with apprenticeships and especially a programme painstakingly rebuilt on quality after all of the perverse incentives from the ill-advised (and never realised) 3 million target. Worse, having shifted the cost to employers via the levy, it is impossible to know how many employers will be around to offer the places and the costs of an expanded and guaranteed offer.

But Boris Johnson, like many Conservative and Labour politicians before him, is attracted to apprenticeships because they are popular. Promising more of them is a trend that goes back at least as far as Gordon Brown. And for Boris this will poll well especially amongst those that supported him in the 2016 referendum and the 2019 general election. This is the easy part - but almost everything else is very difficult. At what age does he promise such a guarantee? At 16? At 19? Up to 25? And at what level? at Level 3 and above? Should they include Level 6 and over as much spending under the levy system has done? And what role does geography play? How far must young people travel in order to get an apprenticeship that they actually want? 

None of this detail comes in polling groups, prime ministerial press conferences or even in emergency budgets. In truth a smaller number of real apprenticeships with decent employers would be good enough. As long as they are part of a bigger offer with programmes and guarantees offering training and employment to young people and adults alike. It’s going to cost a lot more than £3 billion. But it’s that much broader guarantee we will need and financially, it’s that level of interventionism we will require.

Andy Westwood is a professor of government practice at the University of Manchester