The instruction that we must all remain two metres apart has been the nearest we have come to a “golden rule” during the past three months.
While other guidance has become increasingly hard to keep up with, let alone make sense of, the two-metre rule has been the one constant thread that we have all become used to.
That’s why today’s announcement that it will be halved feels like such a significant step in the government’s response to the pandemic.
We are told that where two metres is not possible, one metre will suffice and that this move will mean pubs, restaurants, hotels and hairdressers will be able to reopen (as long as they have other mitigating measures in place).
While this hardly represents a return to normality, it will undoubtedly be a noticeable change and a significant step.
But what does this mean for schools?
Coronavirus: will more pupils return?
I’m sure it will only be a matter of time before we see a government press release declaring that today’s announcement will “enable schools to bring more pupils back”.
You could even forgive those not working in schools for employing the logic that a halving of the distance might allow for a doubling of pupil numbers.
But clearly the situation is far more complicated than that.
Small changes
I feel very confident in saying that we will not see a twofold increase in the number of pupils attending school next month. Whether or not we will see any discernible increase will largely come down to individual schools and how they have interpreted the current DfE guidance.
The latest version of the government’s guidance states:
“We know that, unlike older children and adults, early years and primary-age children cannot be expected to remain two metres apart from each other and staff.”
Instead, the Department for Education has focused more on limiting group sizes to 15 pupils.
However, we know that some schools have worked on the basis that, while not essential, the two-metre rule is still something to be aimed for if at all possible. This has meant that in some cases group sizes are much smaller than 15.
Schools may now be looking at the latest announcement and considering what implications this has for them.
For those who are already operating groups of up to 15 pupils, there is likely to be no further action to take at this stage. In all likelihood, these schools will already be operating at capacity both in terms of spaces and staff.
For schools who have been sticking more closely to a two-metre rule and restricting group sizes on that basis, it may be possible to increase pupil numbers.
This could be done by either adding more pupils into an existing group or combining to smaller bubbles into a large one, thus freeing up capacity to bring back other classes.
Complex questions
The decision to do this is not straightforward and leaders will be having to consider a wide range of other factors such as staffing levels, access to classrooms and availability of toilets, to name but three.
My gut feeling is that for many, today’s announcement will not have a major impact, but for some, it may allow greater flexibility.
In many ways, this is all just a prelude to September. Both the secretary of state and the prime minister have made clear their intentions to have all pupils back in school by the start of the autumn term. What schools need as a matter of urgency is clarity about what that might look like in practice.
We have heard the secretary of state suggest that this might be achieved by an increase in group size, so that whole classes can return together.
Clarity needed
From a primary perspective at least, you could see how this could potentially work.
However, there needs to be very clear guidance about what the social distancing expectations within that bubble would be. Will it be a case of trying to keep pupils apart as much as possible but accepting that even the one-metre rule will be hard to enforce with young pupils in small spaces? The clarity that schools desperately need cannot come soon enough.
Crucially and understandably, teachers and school leaders will also want reassurance that the measures being recommended are informed by the latest scientific understanding about the virus.
What is abundantly clear is that the change from two metres to one metre in itself does not solve many of the challenges schools currently face. The government will need to go far further in its guidance, and quickly, if its vision of a “full return” in September is to be achieved.
James Bowen is director of policy at the NAHT school leaders’ union. He tweets @JamesJkbowen
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