Theresa May’s goose is pretty much cooked, of that we can be certain whatever happens with Brexit. And so thoughts inevitably turn to her successor.
The political scene is far from predictable, but two names come up time and again as the next Tory leader and, therefore, probable prime minister.
One of the favourites is Boris Johnson, but also in the frame is… Michael Gove.
He's the leaver who's loyal, the leaver who Tory remainers can stomach and the leaver who commands respect among almost the entire Conservative party. Many insiders actually believe Gove is a more likely winner than Bojo.
Let's set aside the blood pressure spike that this news will trigger in large chunks of the education sector, and ask: what might all this mean for schools?
For what it’s worth I think there’s a very good chance that if successful, Boris would revert to May’s now emasculated plans for wholesale expansion of grammar schools if only to please his right-wing Brexiteer base. It’s easy to forget that expanding selection at 11 was in the Tory manifesto in 2017 – and was only kiboshed by the botched election: not by the campaign to kill it off.
The good news is that Gove would not let that happen. He is a committed supporter of comprehensive education – and was, it is said, infuriated by Theresa May’s position on selection.
Obviously any incoming PM would be somewhat distracted by the details of either seeing through May’s deal or sorting out a new route for the country through the Brexit miasma, but would Gove really be able to leave education alone? I doubt it.
Of course, whoever he chose as education secretary (what price, Nick Gibb?) would be expected to deliver some kind of ramped up technical education policy to close the skills deficit – something which is likely to be a big drag on the economy in a post-Brexit world.
Gove did not leave the Department for Education by choice – he was effectively fired by David Cameron because it was decided that he had become an electoral liability – and considered his school sector reforms incomplete: the revolution unfinished.
Since that fateful moment in 2014, his successors have largely tinkered around the edges, not making large-scale changes to the system they inherited. To my mind, and to those of other veteran Gove watchers I have discussed this with, I think the temptation to pitch in might prove irresistible.
My bet is that that could look a lot like universal academisation: after all, there are many who were close to the Gove reforms who think that that is the only way to make sense of the now atomised and messy schools system.
But for every educationalist who points to the logic of such a reform, there are many more teachers, unionists and heads who would resist to the end. One would certainly expect fireworks.
Ed Dorrell is the head of content at Tes.
