It’s 2037, and providers and colleges have a new generation of employees: the über-millennials.

Those of us still working in 20 years’ time will be the old retainers of the industry. Our eager young staff, with their digital implants and electric rollerblades, will stare wide-eyed in disbelief when we tell them of “frameworks”, “double OPPs” and “formula funding”.

Once we have finished regaling them with tales of how we used to be given funding and how employers didn’t use their own money to train their own staff, they’ll smile kindly and assume we’ve failed to take our medication. It will sound simply bonkers that the government set the price for an apprenticeship and that the price was determined by something as arbitrary as age. “Isn’t that a form of discrimination, grandfather?” one of them will ask.

It sometimes helps to take the long view in our sector. After all, aren’t apprenticeships a long-term programme of career development? We’ve all been so focused on short-term milestones, such as making the register of approved providers, the introduction of the levy and the transition to standards; perhaps we have stopped thinking about the long-term effect of these reforms.

Next Monday, 1 May 2017, will be the day that the snow globe of the apprenticeship world will be shaken so hard that the snowman’s head comes off. It will be a Rubicon; once crossed we can never go back. It will be easy to get bogged down in the short-term obstacles and pitfalls. What I want to explore is the strategically key question that will divide us: do we seize the new reforms as an opportunity or see them as something to get around?

Three contentious aspects of the reforms pose particular challenges to the sector.

1. Off-the-job training

The 1 May start date could be seen as the day that an apprenticeship came to mean a truly robust, stretching and challenging training programme. Prior to the reforms, an apprenticeship could involve lots of training or no training at all. It could have been purely an assessment programme or, worst of all, a tick-box exercise. Those providers that seize the 20 per cent off-the-job training rule will scope out their apprenticeships as being a far-reaching and transformative development programme. These providers will compete on service and quality. Consequently, they’ll have the outcomes and customer satisfaction that will drive up quality in achievement and progression.

At the same time, there will be providers who put just as much effort into getting around the rule. They’ll come up with scams and interpretations that disguise light-touch learning as something more substantial. They’ll compete more on price and attract customers who want a “bargain”. Sadly, their outcomes will be lower - both in number and in value to the economy.

2. Frameworks out, standards in

Monday could be seen as the day that every apprenticeship became individualised, offering an exciting series of development opportunities. Prior to the reforms, frameworks were essentially a one-size-fits-all offer.

Those providers that seize on standards will develop bespoke and robust programmes for their customers. Their apprentices will enjoy 360-degree development yielding qualifications that are recognised, portable. And they will be part of a long-term, personalised pathway. Consequently, they’ll attract employers who like the personal touch and who buy into a challenging and wide-ranging apprenticeship that prepares learners for their next career step.

At the same time, there will be providers that offer “ghost apprenticeships”, built around passing the end-point assessment (EPA), and offering no formal qualifications or substantial learning.

Apprentices who pass the EPA will not have the range of skills or abilities needed in a dynamic economy; they’ll have just enough to get them through the assessment. In essence, they’ll have turned the standard into another box-ticking exercise.

3. Price driving up quality

1 May could be the first day that every employer feels invested in the apprenticeships they buy. Prior to the reforms, employers often contributed nothing financially and didn’t even know what an apprenticeship cost to deliver.

The providers that seize this new commercial reality will charge a price reflecting a quality service. They’ll engage the employer in their prices and demonstrate that age-old adage, “You get what you pay for.” Employers will begin to feel ownership and control of their programme; they’ll want to see a return on their investment. Consequently, they’ll be highly motivated to see their apprentice achieve and progress.

At the same time, there will be providers who will be terrified by pricing. They’ll seek to compete on value, because they’ll wrongly assume that all employers will base their choices on price. These providers will attract the wrong customers - those with purely short-term or tactical motivations, for whom apprenticeships play no strategic role; those who see them as a cost, not an investment.

In 2037, the über-millennials gather around, eager for stories from the apprenticeship dark ages. They sit cross-legged on their hover chairs, lapping up yarns about the upheavals of the levy, digital accounts and funding caps.

“Nine-thousand pounds for an accountancy apprenticeship?” sniggers one employee. “You couldn’t buy a skinny vegan latte for that now!”

You nod, smiling. Then you feel a pang, as you suddenly think to yourself of all the lobbying of MPs, the angry tweets and the Tes articles you wrote, criticising the reforms.

“Of course,” you say, “I was one of the few who said it would all work out…And I was right.”

Matt Garvey is managing director of West Berkshire Training Consortium