The past 18 months has been a challenge for us all. No more so than those in education where lockdowns and shifting rules have made learning unpredictable and uneven.

So first, a thank you. Thank you to every teacher, adviser, school or college leader, governor, and support staff who have kept going to do the best for their learners. And congratulations to every trainee, student, pupil, apprentice, and learner for continuing through the most difficult circumstances.

While International Baccalaureate results are already out, Tuesday 10 August will mark the first time that there will be a single results day for the whole of the UK with AS and A level, vocational qualifications, Welsh Baccalaureate, and Scottish Highers and Advanced Highers grades all at the same time.

So, what should we expect?

Demand for education and training is stronger than it has ever been

University admissions service Ucas’ apprenticeship service, CareerFinder, saw a record 1.35 million searches in the past 12 months, up 37 per cent in 2020. These searches have resulted in 225,000 applications, an increase from 181,000 last year (+24 per cent).

Over 43 per cent of UK 18-year-olds have applied through Ucas to an undergraduate course this year compared with 40.5 per cent in 2020 and less than 40 per cent each year before that. By the end of the year, over 700,000 people from around the world will have applied through Ucas.

The number of offers made this year is broadly in line with the increase in applications. Courses that have stricter limits on places due to additional funding or placements being needed will have less room for manoeuvre.

There is also some uncertainly around grade inflation, but we are confident that in the majority of cases universities will be able to manage increased demand for places and that the system has sufficient flexibility.

There will inevitably be some pressure points, as there is in any year, which is why it is welcome that the government have lifted the cap and provided additional funding.

Most pupils remain confident and excited about their future

Our latest polling found most applicants (76 per cent) still have their sights firmly set on their first choice of course and say they are not exploring any other options. When we asked students the same question last year, just 65 per cent said the same.

Similarly, those students that are choosing not to start undergraduate study this autumn are also committed to their options, whether that be an apprenticeship, employment, or other pathway.

This shows that, despite the pandemic, young people are committed to moving forward with their education and training.

‘Flexibility’ is the word of the day when confirming places using teacher-assessed grades

Admissions teams are well prepared for teacher-assessed grades, meaning pupils and parents can expect they will be fair and flexible in their decisions.

It’s important to remember it’s not just grades that admission teams are taking into consideration. Interviews or auditions, personal statements, references, and individual family and school circumstances are all considered as part of admissions decisions.

This is particular the case for disadvantaged students, and universities and colleges will once again be asked to be flexible for students who were unable to obtain a grade this year.  

Appeals remain hard to predict

If there are concerns that a grade is incorrect, pupils should speak with their school or college in the first instance, and check Ucas Track on results day as their firm or insurance choice may still have confirmed their place even if they have missed the grades in their offer.

If there is still an issue, students can contact the exam board and consider carefully whether to go through the appeal process. It is important to remember that grades can go down, as well as up.

In England, an alternative to appealing could be to sit an exam in the autumn. Last year there were around 20,000 autumn entries with more and more opportunities available with a January start.

High demand for courses through clearing

Clearing is already open for courses (c.30,000 are currently listed) this year, with demand for courses in clearing increasing dramatically once results are known as students who were holding offers but are not confirmed at their firm or insurance choice become free to look for a new course.

Almost 83,000 students used clearing last year - and, assuming trends remain roughly the same, it will increase again this year. It is entirely possible that the total could reach six figures within the next couple of years.

Looking to the coming days

At Ucas, we are working hard to ensure that confirmation and clearing runs as smoothly as possible. Whatever position students find themselves in on 10 August, it is critical they get advice from their teachers and advisers at school.

University and college admissions teams will be able to support their applicants too, and, as always, Ucas experts will be there online, on social media, and on the phone to help everyone make the right decision for them.

John Cope is director of strategy, policy and public affairs at Ucas.