“Rotas are a less effective means of reducing transmission risk than the approach set out […] in the contingency framework.”

So said schools minister Nick Gibb earlier this week when speaking in the House of Commons in response to a question by Lib Dem MP Daisy Cooper (and also raised earlier in the debate by shadow education secretary Kate Green).

The claim may not sound surprising - on the surface, the idea of a complete lockdown would seem to be more effective than rotas where children and teachers are heading into school more often.

And the dismissal of rotas more generally is also no surprise - the government only very briefly included them in any reopening plans before quickly changing its mind and banning their use.

Coronavirus: The government’s aversion to school rotas

Yet the scientific basis for the government’s aversion to rotas has not been forthcoming at any point, as Geoff Barton, general secretary of the Association of School and College Leaders, points out. 

“We have been here before on the question of rotas, with the government first advocating their use in their contingency framework in the autumn term, then abruptly declaring that they must not be used,” he told Tes.

“As has so often been the case, the government has never explained the scientific or educational reasons for this change of heart, nor, it would seem, asked leaders and teachers for their opinion.”

Tes asked the Department for Education for the data it was using for its overall claims that rotas were less effective at reducing transmission in schools than full remote teaching, but had yet to receive a reply at the time of publication.

Nevertheless, Dr Kit Yates, senior lecturer in the Department of Mathematical Sciences at the University of Bath and a member of the Independent SAGE group of scientists, told Tes that, when it came to quickly reducing transmission occurring in schools, a full lockdown will have the most impact.

“We know this is a disease that spread through mixing and indoor mixing, so even limiting class sizes to say 15 from 30 would allow transmission [to occur], so it’s probably correct at the moment to have as few people as possible in school.”

However, the wider issue with rotas and their almost non-existent use in reopening plans emerges when you consider the announcement on Wednesday that the government hopes for schools to reopen from 8 March.

Reopening schools safely

While nothing was said in the speech on Wednesday or the subsequent update on Thursday about the specific steps that may be used to help with this reopening plan, Dr Yates said that, while not a panacea for the problem, the use of rotas would be a “tool in the arsenal” to help manage this process more safely.

“We [Independent SAGE] have always argued things should be gradually released, and potentially a rota system is one way of gradually getting children back in school, rather than all at once,” he said.

“From a government point of view, it could be easier to start with rotas and then build up to full openings - rather than having everyone back in schools and then having to put things in place afterwards [if transmission rates rose again].”

Mr Barton has also made this point and urged the government not to rule out the use of rotas to help manage reopenings.

“There may be an argument for prioritising certain year groups, but we would also strongly advise the government not to rule out the use of rotas,” he said.

“We are concerned that bringing back some year groups full-time and others not at all may leave some children not having received face-to-face education for many months - with all the educational and mental health concerns that would raise.”

The NEU teaching union has also called for the use of rotas, claiming it would allow “a good means of allowing regular attendance”.

Dr Yates concurs, noting that a system that allowed children to return to school at least some of the time would be better than nothing. “Even five days out of 10 in school is better than kids not being in school,” he adds.

Professor Karla Hemming, from the Institute of Applied Health Research, who is a professor of biostatistics at the University of Birmingham - and who was recently part of a study into the safety of schools, pupils and teachers and crucially how to reduce Covid transmission in the community when schools reopen - said she, too, thinks rotas could play a role.

“Although we can’t say with certainty that rotas would reduce transmission, it’s certainly not going to be a less safe option [than full reopenings] or increase transmission,” she said.

“I can not see any reason why the government would dismiss  [rotas].”

No interest from the get-go

However, it has been clear since the first moves to reopen schools in the middle of 2020 that rotas have rarely been in favour.

For example, a member of a local education authority working group that looked into rotas tells Tes that despite the work finding that there were benefits to rotas, there was little appetite for the findings when shared with the Department for Education.  

“[Opposition to rotas was] very much linked to employers and parents who would have to potentially make big adjustments,” they said.

“I didn’t get the sense that safety and education was the main issue - it was about viability for parents and employers and maintaining normality as much as possible. This did include for students, who may have found it difficult to work in different ways at different times. Getting everyone back working was definitely the focus.”

However, the work they did on the feasibility of rotas certainly suggests there were benefits to this approach to allow schools to reopen in a more gradual way.

“Rotas, combined with blended learning, could work quite smoothly from what we saw, with students coming on-site for set days or weeks (one week on, one week off). This would still allow them to have consistency of provision and continue to have support for their learning,” they said.

“Rotas would allow fewer students on-site, so potentially make transmission control easier and enable consistency for students in knowing when they are in school and when they are not, if done by day or week.”

That is not to say issues were not raised: disruption to transport schedules, parents’ working patterns and the potential for students to find it hard to transition between the two environments were all concerns - but all had potential solutions, they add.

The benefits of rotas

For now, though, most schools have little experience of using rotas and so may be wary of attempting to use them - if especially if they are actively discouraged from doing so. However, one school that has used them and that is keen to advocate for their use is Falinge Park High School in Rochdale, Greater Manchester.

It moved to a 60:40 working split - three days in, two days remote - at the start of the autumn term and ran like this for three months before being told to stop.

School head Janice Allen says she adopted this practice because she felt it would have a better chance of stopping transmission in school and therefore the community - particularly as many families are those in at-risk groups.

It appears that it worked because, during these months, when many other schools were having to send whole year groups home due to staff absence, pupils and staff were able to come in for their allotted days throughout the term - with infection rates low.

“Out of 161 staff across the school, we only had 12 staff who tested positive with most of these occurring just after the half-term break”, she adds.

One reason why she thinks it worked so well is because, for example, during lunch breaks there were far fewer pupils to manage and oversee, meaning staff and pupils could be more spaced out and staff did not have to spend so long in the dining hall, thereby reducing the risk of infection.

“Some schools had to do staggered lunch breaks with staff on duty for hours, but we did ours in the usual 45 minutes.”

More time in school

Ms Allen says the benefit of this approach was that it ensured pupils were in school consistently, rather than being sent home for large periods due to infections in their bubbles or a lack of teachers due to infection and isolation.

“Contact with teachers is really important - even a system that was one week off, one week on provides that contact,” she adds.

The school also had a clear requirement for pupils to attend remote lessons with check-ups on those that missed any - and through this focus and the success of its rota system, attendance rates for pupils in both home and remote learning were high throughout the term (as the below table shows from data for September to December inclusive).               

Year

Online attendance

School attendance

7

91.5 percent

93.4 percent

8

92.1

92.3

9

93.7

91.4

10

91.9

90.8

11

94.5

93.2

Total

93

92.3

However, this all came to an end in December when the school was asked to reopen fully and ditch its rotas - and, of course, since January it has been delivering remote education.

Why would we not?

Now, like every school in England, it is eying a tentative reopening in March - with no word as yet on if it could return to the rota set-up that appeared to serve it so well.

Professor Hemming says the school’s experience cannot be taken as definitive proof that rotas were the cause of reduced transmission --“it could just be a coincidence”, she says, speaking from a research perspective - but reiterates that it is almost certainly not going to be less safe than a full reopening.

Overall, while the science for or against rotas may not exist in any empirical form, what we know about Covid-19 transmission, what we have seen when schools have opened during periods of high transmission, and the compelling insights from a school that has used rotas, suggests they should, as Dr Yates says, be a tool in the arsenal that we deploy in the battle against Covid-19.

“We want kids in school, so let’s think about a sensible way to do it,” adds Ms Allen.

Dan Worth is senior editor at Tes