The Scottish Qualifications Authority (SQA) results are due out next week. There will be no tense wait for pupils - they already know the grades they are going to receive - and the algorithm that was the source of so much controversy last year, when 26 per cent of teacher grades were overturned, has been put out to pasture.
Come Tuesday, however, we can still expect some interesting revelations.
Here’s what to look out for:
1. What will happen to the pass rate?
In 2020, when the exams were cancelled for the first time as a result of the Covid pandemic and teacher judgement ultimately replaced them (albeit one week later after a national outcry over teacher estimates being changed), the pass rates shot up. At National 5 the pass rate went from 78 per cent in 2019, to 89 per cent in 2020 (a rise of 11 percentage points); at Higher the pass rate went from 75 per cent in 2019, to 89 per cent in 2020 (a rise of 14 percentage points); at Advanced Higher the pass rate went from 80 per cent in 2019, to 93 per cent in 2020 (a rise of 13 percentage points).
This year it seems likely this trend of a higher proportion of pupils gaining an A to C grade is likely to continue - but could the pass rate rise further?
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2. What impact will the cancellation of the exams have on the attainment gap?
Interestingly although pass rates shot up last year this did not have a positive knock-on effect on the attainment gap which widened when compared to 2018-19.
The changes were only small - for instance at SCQF (Scottish Credit and Qualifications Framework) level 6, which is equivalent to Higher, the gap between the proportion of school leavers from the most and the least deprived areas attaining one or more pass at this level or better was 35.8 percentage points in 2018-19, but grew to 36.1 percentage points last year, an increase of 0.3 percentage points.
So the change in the attainment gap was slight but movement was in the wrong direction, and that was also the case when comparing the proportion of pupils from the most and least deprived areas gaining at least one pass at SCQF level 4 or better (equivalent to National 4) and at SCQF level 5 or better (equivalent to National 5).
Of course grades were awarded in entirely different ways between the two years and when reporting the figures the government warned “care must be taken when comparing 2019/20 attainment to that of earlier years”.
Altogether, over 140,000 candidates will each receive their results certificates this year.
Processing that data is a significant undertaking, read the full blog here explaining the process to issue your result certificates?https://t.co/BqemqipGDZ pic.twitter.com/fJB0UFw3Bt
- SQA (@sqanews) July 2, 2021
3. Will there be more university places funded by the government?
Last year the Scottish government upped the number of university places, given that more students were attaining the grades needed for entry. This resulted in a total of 1,297 additional funded student places and additional teaching grant of £7.2 million for the academic year 2020-21. If the pass rate goes up again - or remains on a par with last year - surely the government will have to make similar provisions for this year’s school leavers?
4. How many students have opted not to submit results until September?
Some students have yet to receive their results this year - those who opted to take advantage of a contingency for students “unduly disadvantaged by severe disruption to learning and teaching throughout the 2020-21 session”. These students have been given an extended deadline of 3 September in order to complete assessments and submit results. The SQA has yet to reveal how many young people have taken advantage of the extension - Tes Scotland attempted to obtain this information, but was told by the SQA it would be published “in August 2021 as part of our attainment statistics”.
5. Will appeals skyrocket?
The deadline for submitting priority appeals does not come until after results day, but when these figures come to light we will have a better idea of how satisfactory students have found the grading process this year. Schools and teachers were certainly concerned about the pressure they were under - as a result of the disruption to learning caused by Covid-19 and then the volume of assessment they faced when they returned to school full time after the Easter break - but will this translate into a huge volume of appeals, or will students just be glad to put this year behind them?
