Almost three in five headteachers are considering or are likely to reduce teaching staff and increase class sizes in the next two academic years, a survey from a school leaders’ union has shown.

A poll of 630 heads by the Association of School and College Leaders found that 58.1 per cent were considering or likely to make reductions to teaching numbers and increase class sizes, either in 2022-23 or 2023-24 - or both, if they did not receive any additional funding.

More than half (54.6 per cent) said they were considering reducing the number of teaching assistants and over two-thirds (67.8 per cent) said they would consider or would be likely to reduce other support staff.

Two-thirds (66.8 per cent) also said they would look at suspending or scrapping capital projects.

Just 13 (2.1 per cent) of the heads that responded to the survey said they would not have to make financial savings in 2022-23 compared to last year as a result of cost pressures, as they had enough funding.

And this number was smaller than the 17 (2.7 per cent) that said they were considering a four-day week to reduce costs.

The majority of heads (60 per cent) said they would have to make financial savings in both 2022-23 and future years.
 

Geoff Barton, general secretary of ASCL, said it was clear that the future was “bleak” unless the government acted urgently.

Many of the heads responding to the survey used strong language to outline their thoughts on the financial health of the schools sector, with one calling the impact of cost pressures “devastating”.

“I have been here for 15 years and put my heart and soul into improving this school. It has been tough, but it has worked; this is now going to be thrown away,” they added.

“I have no option but to make significant redundancies across all areas of the school, from SLT to support staff.

“The impact will be a significant increase in class sizes, more work for the senior colleagues who will still be here and, over time, the improvements that have been made will be eroded. I am completely disillusioned.”

Another described the situation as “catastrophic” and added that the scale of savings required in-year was “unachievable”.

Mr Barton said that ”no government could claim to be serving the public interest by presiding over an education funding crisis, which cuts provision and imperils standards”, and added that a government that did so could not expect to be in power after the next general election.

“To make matters worse, we are concerned about the possibility of further public spending cuts being imposed in order to rescue the nation’s finances from the hole dug by the government,” he added.

“It should be clear to MPs of all parties that it is simply untenable to once again sacrifice schools and colleges on the altar of austerity, as happened in the wake of the last financial crisis.

“Education should not be seen as a soft target for government cuts but a vital public service and an investment in the future.”

Writing for Tes today, Mr Barton warned that, with schools facing hundreds and thousands of pounds of cuts, “there is nowhere else to go” but to look at staffing. He also highlighted the impact that savings elsewhere will have on pupils’ education.

He said: “Keeping the heating off makes the learning environment less comfortable and less conducive to learning.

“Suspending or scrapping the new facilities that you have been carefully planning for years means that students do not benefit from something that has been identified as an important improvement.”

Schools are facing a range of financial pressures this year due to rising energy costs, staff salary increases and other inflationary pressures.

Over the weekend, leaders of 13 organisations, including ASCL, wrote to all Conservative MPs warning that schools in their constituencies will see an average shortfall of up to £45,000 for primaries and £250,000 for secondaries by 2024.

The government has taken some action to assuage worries in the form of an energy support scheme for schools, though there have been some concerns about the fact that this support is only guaranteed for six months.

And despite worries that inflation has reduced the spending power of current funding levels, there have been murmurings from ministers about further cuts to come.

A Department for Education spokesperson said: “We understand that schools are facing cost pressures which is why we are providing schools with £53.8 billion this year in core funding, including a cash increase of £4 billion for this financial year.

 “All schools will benefit from the Energy Bill Relief Scheme, reducing how much they need to spend on their energy and giving them greater certainty over their budgets over the winter months. We are also providing schools with tools and information to help get the best value for money from their resources.”