The government has raised its new teacher target to more than 32,000 trainees next year because of an anticipated “rebound” in the numbers leaving the profession after the pandemic.
The new figure of 32,600 trainees expected to start postgraduate initial teacher training (PGITT) in 2022-23 is an increase of 1,570 (5.1 per cent) on this year’s target.
The Department for Education (DfE) said the target was needed to ensure that there are enough teachers for the 2023-24 academic year.
It is expected that teachers who delayed their decision to leave the profession in 2020-21 will now do so, causing a post-pandemic “rebound”.
The newly published targets include a goal of 11,655 primary trainees (a 7.9 per cent increase on the 2021-22 target), and 20,945 in secondary (a 3.5 per cent increase).
While numbers are increasing on this year’s targets for many subjects - including physics, computing, English and modern languages - they will decrease in subjects such as maths, biology, art and design, business studies, drama, music and physical education.
The biggest target increase is in modern languages, where the DfE hopes to recruit 2,140 trainees - a 42.2 per cent increase on the 1,505 target for this year.
The subject with the largest percentage decrease in target is mathematics, which is down by 760 trainees, from 2,800 to 2,040 (27.1 per cent decrease).
Explaining the new targets, the DfE said the most “significant driver” was an increase in the number of teachers forecast to leave the workforce in future years, up to and including 2023-24.
It added: “The economic impacts of the Covid-19 pandemic led to increases in teacher retention, with the number of leavers in 2020-21 the lowest observed since the School Workforce Census began in 2010.
“We expect a post-pandemic ‘rebound’ in leaver rates, as some of those teachers who delayed their decision to leave service in 2020-21 will actually do so.”
A report earlier this year warned that teacher recruitment targets would not be met this year across a large range of secondary subjects.
Analysis from the National Foundation for Educational Research found that teacher recruitment targets are likely to be missed in English, which usually meets its target, along with maths and science.
Government data released earlier this year showed the number of initial teacher training applications was 23 per cent lower than it was in February 2021.
