Falling rolls fund will open to schools with lower Ofsted grades

DfE funding rule change aims to help schools hit by falling pupil numbers due to the decline in the birth rate
26th April 2023, 9:46am

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Falling rolls fund will open to schools with lower Ofsted grades

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Schools that are not rated as “good” or “outstanding” by Ofsted will be eligible for additional funding to help manage a significant decline in pupil numbers, after rules are relaxed from next year.

The Department for Education has today responded to a consultation on the National Funding Formula, and will make a series of changes.

Among other changes to be introduced from 2024-25, councils will be set expectations around the minimum funding they must provide to support schools seeing significant increases in pupil numbers.

And schools with more than one site will receive funding on a consistent national basis to help shoulder extra costs they face due to the need to duplicate services, such as caretaking, over their multiple sites.

Regarding falling pupil rolls, specialist funding can currently be given to schools that have falling numbers in certain circumstances, laid out by the DfE here.

Funding to help schools with falling pupil numbers

DfE guidance sets out how local authorities should distribute falling roll funds, including by offering a rate per vacant place - up to a specified maximum places - or a lump sum payment based on expected costs, such as estimated salary costs equivalent to the number of staff who would otherwise be made redundant.

One of the requirements is that support is available only for schools judged “good” or “outstanding” at their last Ofsted inspection.

But in responses to a recent consultation, many respondents argued that in light of current demographic trends, this would target falling rolls funding too narrowly, and so the DfE has now agreed to relax the rule.

Falling birth rates mean there are projected to be half a million fewer pupils in English state nurseries and primaries in 2028, compared with 2022, reducing the funds available to primaries in the future.

London Councils has published analysis revealing that London boroughs are expected to see an average 7.3 per cent decrease in Reception pupil numbers over the next three years, with London’s total Reception numbers predicted to fall from 96,424 to 89,121 by 2026-27.

However, Geoff Barton, general secretary of the Association of School and College Leaders, downplayed the significance of the falling rolls funding change, calling it a “minor concession”.

He said: “But the reason that this is such a critical issue in the first place is because the level of per-pupil funding is so low, particularly in primary schools, which are facing this demographic bombshell.

“Some small primary schools are barely financially sustainable as it is and any loss in pupil numbers is virtually impossible to absorb.”

The consultation response also reconfirms the DfE’s commitment to move to a “direct” National Funding Formula, in which funding for individual schools will be set by a single, national formula - rather than each local authority having its own local formula to allocate funding for individual schools.

The DfE said last year that it expected to have moved to the direct National Funding Formula within the next five years - that is, by the 2027-28 funding year.

The government has also today released individual funding allocations for each school.

Education secretary Gillian Keegan said: “With school funding set to be at its highest-ever level next year, even accounting for inflation, parents everywhere can be confident schools are being supported to let teachers get on and do what they do best - teach.”

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