Headteachers have warned that “alarm bells are ringing” over whether the £4.7 billion boost for schools announced in yesterday’s Budget will be enough to cover the cost of raising teacher starting salaries to £30,000.

The government “appears to believe” that the additional cash for the core schools budget by 2024-25 will be sufficient to fund the proposed starting salary hike, which has been promised by the end of this Parliament, the Association of School and College Leaders (ASCL) said.

But the union fears that the move could actually amount to “giving with one hand and taking away with another”.

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The warning comes as public spending experts appear divided over whether the uplift will be sufficient to cover rising salary costs.

Yesterday the Treasury announced an additional £4.7 billion for the core schools budget by 2024-25. It said the spending review settlement would “level up education standards” by “supporting delivery of the government’s commitment to increase teacher starting salaries to £30,000”.

School funding: Fears over cash for teacher pay rise

Meanwhile, the chancellor announced that he was lifting the year-long public sector pay freeze, paving the way for a possible wage increase for teachers next year - pending recommendations from the School Teachers’ Review Body (STRB).

But Dame Meg Hillier, chair of the Public Accounts Committee (PAC), has suggested that there is “not enough” in the schools settlement to cover an increase in teacher pay.

Responding to the Budget in the Commons yesterday, she said: “The government have also promised a £30,000-a-year salary for teachers; as far as I can see, having read the Red Book quickly, there is not enough in the settlement for schools to pay for that even if, now that the pay freeze has been lifted, the basic pay increase is taken on board - and we do not yet know what that will be.

“Even if the pay review bodies come forward with an increase to the basic pay for teachers, as we expect they might, it will be very hard for schools.

“In effect, it will mean cuts to the number of teachers and to other school services to pay for that promised salary, because there is not enough money in the pot to be carved up all ways. Even the catch-up money will not cover that issue.”

And ASCL leader Geoff Barton has expressed similar concerns.

He told Tes: “We’re pleased that the public sector pay freeze is being lifted and that the plan to raise teacher starting salaries to £30,000 was confirmed in the Budget.

“This is definitely the right policy as we need to recruit and retain more teachers, and it needs to be backed up with across-the-board awards which address the fact that the real value of pay has been eroded over the past decade.”

Mr Barton said the “big concern” was that the government appeared to believe that the £4.7 billion uplift was “enough to cover the cost of raising teacher starting salaries to £30,000”.

“This will be a significant cost on school budgets, which are already extremely stretched, and we’re worried that this is a case of giving with one hand and taking away with another,” he said.

“Pay awards have to be fully funded by the government. There’s a lot of detail to be worked through to work out the impact, but it is fair to say that alarm bells are ringing.”

However, asked by Tes about the affordability of the starting salary hike at an Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) briefing this morning, research fellow Luke Sibieta said it was likely the government would have accounted for the costs when devising the school funding settlement.

“Clearly, one of the big things that schools spend their money on is teacher salaries, and part of the cuts to school spending over the last decade have been delivered through real-terms cuts to teacher salaries,” he said.

“And, as part of the spending review, the government will clearly have made an assumption for how much extra we spend on teacher salaries over the next few years.

“How much is actually spent will depend on what the pay review body recommends and what the government actually does.

“But there will clearly be an allowance as part of the settlement for extra spending on teacher salaries.”

He later clarified to Tes that teacher pay increases “will cost a large share of the school funding settlement”, but “won’t come close to using it all up”.

Meanwhile, Steve Chalke, founder of the Oasis academy chain, has said the funding boost in yesterday’s Budget means that “levelling up in education is dead”.

He told BBC Radio 4‘s World at One programme today: “All of this...just gets us back to where we were in 2010.

“To refer to Dickens’ classic novel, there’s Oliver - he’s given some gruel, and he dares to ask for more.

“We’re thankful for the pounds that we get for this investment that comes - it will make a difference. But I think what educationists around the country want to do is dare to ask for more, not for themselves but to level up, let alone deal with the pandemic.”

The Department for Education has been approached for comment.