Applications to initial teacher training (ITT) courses have fallen by up to 37 per cent year-on-year, “astonishing” statistics published today reveal.
The figures come as schools are already reporting major recruitment struggles, and in the week that teachers are taking part in a series of strikes across the country over pay.
The data shows that, in February 2023, there were 10,346 “placed” ITT applicants - those that were recruited, accepted a conditional offer or deferred an offer - down from 11,108 in February 2022.
This has pushed primary school teaching applications 15 per cent below this time last year, while secondary applications are only 2 per cent higher despite big bursary uplifts, meaning they are “on track for another bad year”, according to expert Jack Worth, education economist at the National Foundation for Educational Research.
Mr Worth tweeted: “February ITT application stats for England are so bad that this year is now looking worse than last year, which is quite something.”
Looking at the figures by individual subject, applications have fallen by as much as 37 per cent (Classics).
In contrast, some subjects that are attracting higher bursaries this year have seen applications increase by up to 42 per cent (geography).
However, Mr Worth’s analysis also finds that the picture is far worse once the figures are adjusted to take account of higher bursaries. He wrote: “Astonishingly, without the expected bursary effect, overall secondary is down by 10 per cent versus last year...So underlying interest in entering teaching appears to be haemorrhaging.”
Geoff Barton, general secretary of the Association of School and College Leaders, said the prospect of even worse teacher shortages was “truly alarming”.
He highlighted that the Department for Education last year missed its target for ITT recruitment to primary and fell short on secondary subjects by 41 per cent, and in 13 out of 17 subjects. These were “catastrophic figures for a system already suffering a severe shortage of teachers”, he said.
He added: “We simply do not know what it will take for the government to accept that it has to put a great deal more focus on both recruitment and retention.”
As well as improving pay, he called on the government to ”reduce systemic pressures which lead to high workloads and, in particular, address an excessive regime of Ofsted inspections and performance tables”.
The DfE has recommended a pay rise of 3 per cent for experienced teachers in 2023-24 in its evidence to the School Teachers’ Review Body, alongside teacher starting salaries rising from £28,000 to £30,000 (£34,502 in Inner London).
In September last year, experienced teachers were given a 5 per cent pay rise - precipitating a national strike earlier this month, with three more days of strike action going ahead this week.
The DfE has been contacted for comment.
