Almost nine in 10 large multi-academy trusts (MATs) expect to grow over the next two years, findings shared with Tes reveal.

And nearly a third of single-academy trusts (SATs) plan to grow over the same time period to 2025, suggesting that the sharp decline of one-school trusts - identified in a separate Tes analysis today - will continue.

The bigger a MAT is, the more likely it is to plan to grow, according to unpublished data collected for a benchmarking report by accountancy firm Kreston UK.

While 31 per cent of SATs plan to expand, the figure rises to 81 per cent of small MATs, 85 per cent of medium MATs and 87 per cent of large MATs - defined as those with more than 7,500 pupils.

But there are also concerns from leaders about a “lack of clarity” on how the DfE’s regions teams are making decisions on MAT growth.

The Kreston UK Academies Benchmark Report 2024, published last month, revealed that the number of schools run by MATs increased by 5.4 per cent over the year, with trusts gaining two schools on average.

The trend follows encouragement from government officials, including in the 2022 Schools White Paper, for larger trusts to be formed.

However, the government’s stance has been thrown into doubt more recently after education secretary Gillian Keegan made comments seen by leaders as a “change of tone” on academisation.

Nonetheless, 10 SATs either formed a new MAT on their own or alongside other SATs last term, according to a Tes analysis of regional advisory board decisions carried out as part of the launch of Tes’ MAT Tracker.

However, it appears that MAT growth is slowing overall, with 73 per cent of trusts expecting to grow over the next two years, down from 92 per cent the previous year.

Some MATs pause growth

Kreston noted in its recent report that the total number of academy schools only grew by 27 per cent over the last five years, compared with 100 per cent for the five years to 2019, adding that we are seeing a “move to consolidation, with many trusts slowing their growth while they address financial challenges”.

Trusts are choosing to slow growth for a number of reasons. Cabot Learning Federation, a MAT with 34 schools based in the South West, has recently “embarked upon an ambitious programme of growth”, regional advisory board minutes from November state.

The minutes reveal that having taken on a number of “vulnerable” schools recently, “this is the last of the trust’s planned growth in this academic year and the future focus will be on a period of consolidation”.

Meanwhile, L.E.A.D Academy Trust - a 26-school trust based in Nottingham - plans to maintain the number of academies it runs “in the short term”, while the “next phase of growth is currently being carefully planned”, according to its annual accounts.

And 30-school trust Meridian Trust based in Peterborough notes in its accounts that “after considerable growth” in 2021-2022, last year was “more focused on consolidation in both the educational and operational spheres”.

The accounts also note under “principal risks and uncertainties” that, following the quick growth of the trust in the past three years, ensuring it has the “capacity to address issues as they arise” remains “a key consideration”.

Other trusts are reaching their ambitions for school numbers, putting a stop to further growth for now.

The 39-school Bishop Bewick Catholic Education Trust in the North East, for example, notes in its annual accounts for 2022-2023 that it has “completed its growth strategy as planned”.

The MAT will now “consolidate its position, exploring options through procurement, shared expertise and innovation” and the accounts note that there “are currently no plans at diocesan or trust level for any further growth”.

Leaders ‘very conscious’ of other MATs’ growth

Other MATs see growth as necessary to remain financially stable.

Jacqueline Bircham, deputy CEO of ASSET Education, which is based in the East of England and has 3,300 pupils, told Tes that the trust was “very conscious” that a lot of MATs are planning to grow.

“We all recognise we have to [grow] in order to be able to continue to offer central services,” she said, adding that “it is a tougher environment we are in financially and there has to be some growth to sustain that standard”.

Ms Bircham also said that the trust has to find money to meet the changing needs of pupils since the pandemic, adding that the trust knows it will “only get that through growing”.

Some MATs ‘more than doubled in size’

However, many large MATs have noted their intention to continue expanding in their recently posted 2022-23 annual accounts.

Dixons Academies Trust, a 17-school MAT based in Bradford, notes that, over the past five years, it has “more than doubled in size” and plans to grow significantly over the next three years.

It plans to build “hubs” along the M62 in Leeds, Liverpool and Manchester and continues “to work with the Department for Education regions group to explore other opportunities on both sides of the Pennines”.

Meanwhile, Midsomer Norton Schools Partnership - a 32-school trust based in Somerset - states in its accounts that, over the past few years, the trust has “grown significantly...expanding its reach and impact both locally and beyond”.

‘New phase of expansion’

Now, the trust is “entering a new phase of expansion” and “considering ways to maximise the positive impact of development, especially through the growth of specialist and alternative provisions”.

Some MATs are becoming more selective in the schools they take on.

Northern Education Trust, a 24-school MAT in the North East of England, has said that it “will not sponsor schools where key stakeholders and the local community are not supportive of the trust’s vision and potential sponsorship”.

And its accounts note that “ideally, growth will only be considered” in the North of England. A new considered growth strategy for the trust aims to scale up “without compromising quality”.

Staying small poses future ‘challenge’

Some leaders say that decisions over growth plans are being hindered by a lack of consistency from regional teams.

A CEO of a medium-sized trust told Tes that there is a “real lack of clarity or coherence about the way some regional offices are acting regarding MAT growth and what the criteria are for that”.

The leader explained that the “lack of planning” and “elements of favouritism” do not help with this and “take away from what we should be focusing on”.

Speaking about the current state of the schools system, the CEO said that there is a “mixed system of structures” and that “the government needs to support LAs, support MATs and federations”.

“The fact that they haven’t made a firm announcement on that has left people in limbo,” they added.

While small trusts - defined by Kreston as having fewer than 3,000 pupils - are less likely to plan to grow over the coming years, leaders still acknowledge an “acute awareness” of the benefits of expansion.

The head of one MAT with three primary schools, who wished to remain anonymous, told Tes that while the trust is “not currently seeing a huge impact from not growing”, they are “aware in future years that there could be a potential challenge...as it becomes more and more challenging to benefit from the economies of scale”.

“I am acutely aware that if we don’t do something in regards to growth in two or three years, our options will be very limited and we may have to merge with someone else,” the leader added.

Find our interactive map of England’s multi-academy trusts here, along with links to all of our MAT Tracker content