Theresa May’s grammar schools revolution will lead to a surge in independent schools seeking to join the state sector, headteachers are predicting.

The government’s plan to allow an expansion of academic selection and lift the cap on faith-based admissions will make all the difference to independent schools facing an increasingly uncertain future, school leaders have told TES.

They say that the current rule that says a private school switching to the state sector cannot be selective has been a “hurdle” and a cause of “anxiety” that has deterred many from applying.

But the prospect of the ban on new state-funded selective schools being lifted is understood to be persuading many to reconsider switching sectors.

One headteacher in the North of England told TES: “I believe as many as 20 per cent of fee-paying schools in the region would seriously consider conversion.”

Several institutions have already made the leap, with 27 independent schools becoming free schools or academies between 2007 and 2015, including prestigious names such as Liverpool College and Bradford Girls’ Grammar.

More will follow

Now headteachers expect that many more will follow. Schools in the North of England, where pupil recruitment can be the most difficult as local economies continue to stagnate, are thought to be among the most likely to want to convert.

Heads and governing bodies of large, city-centre, fee-charging independent “grammar” schools - former recipients of the old central government direct grant - are understood to be “actively discussing” how the government’s new stance on selection could enable them to return to the state-funded sector.

Those that do remain independent will face greater pressures under plans contained in the government’s Green Paper on grammars, unveiled this week.

The consultation proposes that private schools will have to contribute more to the state sector to preserve their charitable status.

I think there will be a great deal of interest in exploring the possibility of returning in some way to the state system

Private faith schools may also be more likely to apply to join the state sector as the government wants to lift the cap that allows new state-funded faith schools to admit only 50 per cent of their students on the basis of faith.

One independent faith school, St Mary’s College in Crosby, Merseyside, had its application for state-funded free-school status vetoed by Catholic bishops in 2014 because it would not be able to select all of its pupils by religion.

Chris King, vice-chair of the Headmasters’ and Headmistresses’ Conference (HMC) elite group of private schools, said that a move to the state sector would be “actively considered by a very large number of city-centre grammar schools”.

Mr King, who is also headmaster of Leicester Grammar, said that he had already met with his school’s governors this week to discuss the issue, although they concluded that it was too early to make any decisions.

“I think there will be a great deal of interest in exploring the possibility of returning in some way to the state system”, he said, with the free-school route or a “2016 form of the direct grant” being the most popular options.

Conversion ‘more attractive’

Simon Corns, headmaster of Queen Elizabeth’s Grammar School, in Blackburn, which converted to a state-funded free school in 2014, said: “I would be surprised if there weren’t northern and indeed other independent schools who were interested because the thing that [previously] stuck in the craw for most people was this notion of selection.”

He said that if the option to select had been available when his school was converting it would have meant “less anxiety” and it would have been “a very simple decision for us”.

The headteacher added that those independent schools considering becoming a state grammars “will be doing it as a way of securing the long-term future...without paying the price of losing their ability to select pupils”.

Hans van Mourik Broekman, headteacher of Liverpool College, a HMC school that went state-funded in 2013, said: “For many of these schools, one of the hurdles in the current transition arrangements is the need to become an all-ability academy. If you are an undersubscribed private school with good results and a staff that knows how to deliver…the prospect of being able to academically select would make conversion to the state sector more attractive - you would have another option.”

He added that moderately performing schools that are not in good financial shape might also decide to convert out of fear of competition from new state grammars springing up in their areas.

The idea of independent schools converting to the state sector is backed up by Graham Brady, chairman of the 1922 Committee of Conservative backbench MPs and a prominent grammar schools supporter, who told TES that “enormously successful” former direct grant schools would be the most likely to convert to the state sector.

@IrenaBarker