Freezing teacher pay beyond the next year could “work against” the Covid recruitment boom and “risk prompting” a post-pandemic supply challenge, researchers have warned.

While “labour market uncertainty” brought on by the Covid crisis is likely to boost teacher supply “in spite of slightly less competitive pay” for a few years to come, it will not sustain interest in the long term, a new report from the National Foundation for Educational Research (NFER) says.

The researchers found that pay restraint beyond 2021-22 could lead to the profession becoming “increasingly uncompetitive”, which, in turn, could risk a fresh supply challenge.

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The NFER is therefore calling on the government to “account for a measured three-year package of teacher pay increases” in the autumn spending review, “to ensure pay remains competitive”.

Covid: ‘Short-term’ boost to teacher recruitment

In December, the government met its secondary teacher training target for the first time in eight years - signifying a boost in interest in the profession driven by the Covid crisis.

Today’s report shows that this trend has continued into 2021, with a 26 per cent rise in total applications up to mid-February, when compared with the same point in 2020.

“This suggests that the teacher supply challenge has been eased in the short term,” the report states.

Meanwhile, NFER research has found that the pandemic is “likely to have led to lower teacher turnover and higher retention”.

“The number of teachers leaving the profession is likely to remain lower than previous years in 2021, further bolstering short-term teacher supply,” the report adds.

However, the researchers warn that continued pay restraint could lead to new challenges in the long term.

Chancellor Rishi Sunak announced in November that there would be a public sector pay freeze for 2021-22, apart from for doctors and nurses, and public sector workers on less than £24,000 - who would receive a pay rise of at least £250.

The NFER is warning that, if this pay freeze persists, it could “work against” the positive trend in teacher supply sparked by the pandemic.

“The level of teachers’ pay remains in line with the pay of similar professionals, but the 2021-22 pay freeze may lead to a less competitive level of teacher pay in the short-term,” the report says.

“While labour market uncertainty is likely to bolster teacher supply in spite of slightly less competitive pay for a few more years, a prolonged period of teacher pay restraint beyond 2021-22 would likely lead to teacher pay becoming increasingly uncompetitive compared to other professions.

“This could work against the positive impact of wider labour market uncertainty on supply and risk prompting another teacher supply challenge once the labour market starts to recover.

“It would also make it more challenging to meet the 2019 Conservative manifesto pledge to raise teacher starting salaries to £30,000 by the end of the Parliament.”

Paul Whiteman, general secretary of the NAHT school leaders’ union, said: “Over the last 12 months, school leaders have re-engineered schooling from the ground up, many times over, and expertly navigated the constant last-minute emergencies and major business planning challenges that the pandemic has brought. And all this whilst facing another real-terms pay cut.

“The current situation is unsustainable. School leaders are frustrated at government and exhausted by Covid. Our own survey in autumn 2020 found that nearly half of school leaders surveyed (47 per cent) were considering leaving the profession sooner than originally planned, as a result of the pandemic.

“These experienced teachers and leaders cannot be replaced by the new people entering teacher training this year. Action must be taken to ensure a sufficient education workforce, improving conditions to retain both current staff and new recruits.

“School leadership is a demanding and important profession, and the government needs to make the case for a decades-long career in teaching.”

The DfE has been approached for comment.