Job losses in councils are “inevitable” and services will be cut unless extra cash can be found to meet a £1 billion shortfall, local authority leaders have warned.
Cosla, which represents Scotland’s councils, fears that without additional cash from the Scottish government, authorities will be “struggling to deliver even the basic, essential services that communities rely on”.
Council leaders say the shortfall they are facing is equivalent to local authorities’ entire budget for early learning and childcare, or 17,500 teachers - around 30 per cent of the current total number of teachers.
Cosla president Shona Morrison warned that current government spending plans could result in council services being “either significantly reduced, cut or stopped altogether”.
With 70 per cent of council cash spent on staffing, Ms Morrison said it is “inevitable that current spending plans will lead to job losses”.
Ms Morrison was speaking as the organisation, which represents Scotland’s 32 local authorities, issued an “SOS call” to “save our services”.
School funding fears amid council cuts warning
The warning from Cosla comes ahead of the Scottish government outlining how much funding councils will get in 2023-24 in the Scottish budget on 15 December, and as the dispute over teacher pay continues, with more strikes set to close schools this week.
On Thursday first minister Nicola Sturgeon said the latest teacher pay offer from the Scottish government and councils was ”fair” and gave “as much of an increase to teachers as the janitor and the dinner lady have already accepted”.
Councils’ warning over the budget gap also follows the publication of a budget briefing document for 2023-26 by East Renfrewshire Council last month that outlined potential cuts to education and beyond.
The authority said “up to 550 jobs could be at risk over three years” and that cuts like reducing the length of the school day in primary and reducing teacher numbers were on the table.
Meanwhile, also last month, Lyndsay McRoberts, a former headteacher and the current education director in East Ayrshire, warned at the School Leaders Scotland annual conference that “absolutely dire” budget cuts “like we have never experienced before” are coming.
The Scottish budget will be published next week but Cosla leaders said the government has already laid out plans for “flat cash” funding - meaning money for councils will not rise in line with soaring inflation.
Ms Morrison said council leaders appreciate “money is extremely tight”. But she added: “With little room left to manoeuvre, the Scottish government’s spending plans as they stand will see council services either significantly reduced, cut or stopped altogether.”
This, combined with the prospect of job losses, means the “critical work council staff do on prevention and early intervention will reduce significantly”, she added.
Cosla vice-president Steven Heddle said the flat cash deal “looked difficult for us” when it was announced in May, but rising energy costs and inflation since then mean “local government is now on extremely dangerous ground”.
Finance directors from all 32 Scottish local authorities have already written an “unprecedented” letter to deputy first minister John Swinney to highlight their “immediate concerns”.
Mr Heddle warned: “Make no mistake, what we will now face is councils struggling to deliver even the basic, essential services that communities rely on.
“To put this into perspective, the estimated £1 billion gap for councils in 2023-24 is the equivalent of the entire budget for early learning and childcare across Scotland, or 17,500 teachers.
“A funding gap of this magnitude will have an impact on all our communities, with the most vulnerable who rely on these services suffering the worst consequences.”
Cosla resources spokeswoman Katie Hagmann said councils “are at a crisis point like never before”.
She added: “The impact for communities is serious and needs to be reconsidered. The financial impacts for other parts of the public sector are also serious.
“When councils can’t focus spend on prevention, for example on preventing ill health, services like the NHS will end up spending significantly more money when issues become more serious.
“Directors of finance across Scotland’s councils are sufficiently concerned about the financial sustainability of councils that they have written to the deputy first minister outlining their concerns.
“This really is an SOS call from Scotland’s councils - people in communities across Scotland will be pulled into further poverty and uncertainty without adequate funding for the vital services that support them.”
Responding to Cosla, Mr Swinney said: “The Scottish government recognises the crucial role councils and their employees play in our communities across Scotland and the challenging financial circumstances they face.
“The Scottish government’s settlements from the UK government have suffered a decade of austerity with average real-terms cuts of over 5 per cent equating to a loss of £18 billion.
“Despite this, local authority revenue funding is £2.2 billion or 22.9 per cent higher in cash terms in the current financial year than it was in 2013-14.
“Future spending decisions will be outlined as part of the 2023-24 Scottish budget on 15 December.”
