Around 50,000 staff in the education sector could have to be cut by 2024 if current government spending plans remain, according to research by a leading think tank.
Research by the Institute for Fiscal Studies suggests that even if pay is cut in real terms by around 5 per cent, the public sector workforce may need to be reduced by more than 200,000 to stay within current limits for expenditure.
The paper says that public sector workers are generally seeing pay awards of around 5 per cent this year on average - experienced teachers will see rises at this level - and that this is simultaneously below inflation but above what was budgeted for in government department spending plans last autumn.
And it says that keeping to these plans - as the government has said it will - could leave departments having to find around £5 billion of savings to fund pay awards, which could mean a cut to the workforce of 100,000 this year. It adds that this could happen again the following year unless more money is forthcoming.
One of the report’s authors, Bee Boileau, has told Tes that, if the cuts were spread evenly, we could “expect” cuts of around 50,000 to the education workforce by 2024-25, which would be equivalent to around 3.8 per cent of the total staff.
Lack of school funding ‘threatens teacher jobs’
But Ms Boileau added that the cuts in education could be “deeper” if some areas, such as the NHS, were exempt from cuts. Or perhaps the cuts in education could be fewer, if, as the IFS believes, “there might be reason to think that schools are better placed to absorb higher cost pressures than other services”.
Geoff Barton, general secretary of the Association of School and College Leaders, said the report was a “badly needed dose of reality”, and that talk of further efficiency savings in government were “genuinely chilling”.
The report warns that the public sector pay settlements announced this July will pose “severe budgetary challenges” for many areas of government.
It adds: “The new chancellor, Kwasi Kwarteng, must either top up those spending plans to fund these higher-than-expected pay awards or accept that the quality of public services will (further) deteriorate.”
And it continues: “Even the higher-than-budgeted pay awards this year may not be enough to head off concerns around recruitment and retention - or widespread industrial action.”
The report also says there is “a strong case” for rebalancing public sector remuneration “away from pensions and towards pay”, arguing that “a far greater share of overall public sector remuneration is deferred”, in the form of both employer and employee pension contributions.
Responding to the report, Mr Barton said that while pay awards were “deserved”, it was “ridiculous” that the government expected them to be paid “without providing money for schools and colleges to pay them”.
“Combined with other rising costs, this will inevitably necessitate a reduction in staffing numbers because this is the largest cost, and that will, in turn, mean cuts to the curriculum, larger class sizes and less support for children who need extra support,” he added.
“The notion that the government may seek additional ‘efficiencies’ on top of this is genuinely chilling.”
School leaders and unions have been pressing the government over funding in recent days, with a group of 12 organisations warning the prime minister that funding pressures would lead to a drop in standards.
Duriing the summer, when the pay rises were announced, schools told Tes that they would put schools in deficit and lead to staffing cuts.
