Funding pledges made by the Conservative, Labour and Liberal Democrat parties “leave schools in the dark about how their budgets might evolve over the next Parliament”, the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) has warned.
In a fresh analysis of the parties’ manifestos released last week, the IFS said that “commitments made by the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats would still allow for cuts in total funding as pupil numbers fall, whilst Labour have refrained from making any commitment at all on core school funding”.
The Conservative Party pledged in its manifesto to protect day-to-day school spending per pupil in real terms over the course of the next Parliament. The Liberal Democrats committed to increasing core school and college funding per pupil by more than inflation each year.
Both of these promises could be fulfilled by maintaining per-pupil core spending in real terms or increasing it just above inflation, the IFS said, though both parties could do more than this.
Labour has not made any manifesto commitment on core school funding, though it did say there would be “no return to austerity” if it wins power. The IFS analysis said this would presumably “require no real-terms cuts to school spending per pupil”.
School funding uncertainty
The IFS has previously said that freezing per-pupil spending in real terms could generate £3.5 billion in savings for the next government, as pupil numbers are set to drop by 5.8 per cent between 2024-25 and 2028-29.
But Luke Sibieta, research fellow at the IFS, warned this would likely leave schools having to cut staff or in some cases, close.
“Protecting the total schools budget - rather than per-pupil spending - could cost £3.5 billion a year by 2028. This would not be an easy sum to find in a tight funding environment,” Mr Sibieta added.
The IFS warned that the next government will start its term with schools facing a range of challenges, including high costs, pressure on special educational needs provision, stubbornly high absence rates since the pandemic, increasing pupil mental health issues, teacher recruitment and retention struggles and a widened disadvantage gap.
Heads faced with ‘untenable choices’
“Falling pupil numbers should normally enable the government to make savings, but the scale of the challenges facing schools at present probably makes these hard to achieve in practice,” the report said.
The IFS had previously warned that schools needed £700 million more in their budgets for next year to allow them to meet expected cost rises.
Daniel Kebede, general secretary of the NEU teaching union, said: “The IFS is right to highlight the pressing need for all political parties to address the shortfall in school and college funding.
“To balance the books and keep doors to their schools open, headteachers have been faced with untenable choices.
“Class sizes have gone up, extracurricular activities have been cut or disappeared, the range of subjects offered has been cut, SEND and pastoral care have been cut, building repairs left undone.”
Specific spending pledges
The three main political parties have also made specific funding commitments for schools. The Conservatives have pledged to extend PE and Sports Premium funding for secondary schools, for example, and to introduce the Advanced British Standard (ABS) qualification.
The Labour manifesto includes commitments totalling more than £1 billion in extra funding or support for schools, including £450 million to recruit 6,500 extra teachers. However, the IFS echoed other sector leaders in pointing out that the party has provided no detail on how these new teachers would be attracted to the profession.
The Liberal Democrats have pledged several extra funding streams for schools totalling £2.2 billion, and around £1.9 billion for school buildings.
The Green Party said it would advocate for £8 billion of extra school spending, and increase spending on school buildings by £2.5 billion a year. Reform UK has not made any specific commitments on school funding.
The Green and Liberal Democrat parties’ capital spending commitments would increase annual spending on buildings up to the £5 billion level that the DfE previously recommended would be required to maintain school buildings and mitigate the most serious risks.
Outlook for FE
The authors of the IFS report said there is “less clarity” about the funding that parties would allocate to further education and sixth forms.
The exception in this is the Liberal Democrat Party, which has committed to increasing college funding per student above inflation each year.
There will be 110,000 more 16- to 18-year-olds in England by 2028, so further education does not currently face the problem of falling rolls. To maintain spending per student at the 2024-25 levels in real terms, the next government would need to increase total funding to colleges by an additional £400 million by 2028, the IFS said.
A Liberal Democrat spokesperson said its “rooted-in-evidence plans will see investment in great schools and teachers”.
“We will provide a qualified mental health professional in every school, expand free school meals and help disadvantaged children with a tutoring guarantee,” the spokesperson added.
Labour and the Conservatives have been contacted for comment.
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