The dropout rate for new primary teachers in Scotland following the one-year Teacher Induction Scheme (TIS) is worsening over time, national statistics show.
Scottish government figures used in the teacher-workforce planning process, and released this week via Freedom of Information, show that in 2021 the primary teacher dropout rate following induction was at 19 per cent. However, by 2023 that figure - referred to as “wastage rate” - was 27 per cent.
TIS wastage rates are based on an average of the last five years of data and calculate the percentage reduction in new teachers in the year following the scheme. The TIS guarantees Scottish teaching graduates a job for a year to enable them to complete their probation.
For the secondary sector, the TIS wastage rate is lower: in 2021 the dropout rate was put at 16 per cent; by 2023 it was 18 per cent.
Dropout rates and pandemic could be linked
Minutes from the November 2023 meeting of the Teacher Workforce Planning Advisory Group describe the TIS drop-off rates as “very high”.
According to the minutes, members of the group said there was a need to understand the reasons for the “high dropout rates from the [TIS]”. There was a suggestion they could be “linked to undertaking [initial teacher education] during the pandemic”.
In recent years councils have complained about higher dropout rates among probationer teachers, saying the issue is contributing to falls in overall teacher numbers.
The official figures on dropout rates follow data uncovered by Tes Scotland earlier this year that showed almost one in five probationer teachers on the 2023-24 induction scheme had opted out by January.
At the time, the General Teaching Council for Scotland said numbers on the TIS were liable to change for a variety of reasons, including deferrals and moving to the flexible route.
However, a spokesperson also said that there was “a need to revisit the structure of [initial teacher education] and induction to ensure that the route to becoming a teacher is as effective as possible”.
Job prospects worsening for new primary teachers
The wastage rate data shows that dropout rates are highest for new primary teachers.
Official figures updated every December show the employment prospects for new teachers - especially those entering primary - have been getting worse over time.
Last year, in the September after completing their probation, just 16.6 per cent of new primary teachers secured permanent full-time or part-time posts, down from 57.6 per cent in 2017.
Employment prospects for new teachers in secondary schools are also deteriorating, but the picture is not quite as stark.
A total of 47.2 per cent of secondary post-probationers had secured a permanent post immediately after probation last year, down from 58.7 per cent in 2017.
Campaign group Scottish Teachers for Permanence has been highlighting the poor employment prospects for new teachers.
It is calling for immediate action to address the jobs crisis, including cutting the number of places on teacher education courses to address the “huge backlog” of teachers “who can’t get permanent jobs”.
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