Nearly all secondary schools will be unable to cope with cost increases in 2024-25 without making cuts to education provision, according to the relaunched School Cuts website.
The site - run by the NEU teaching union, the NAHT school leaders’ union and the Association of School and College Leaders - has been relaunched today with an estimate that 99 per cent of secondary schools will be unable to deal with the increasing costs they face.
School leaders have warned that school investment is “desperately needed” as the latest analysis also shows that nine in 10 (91 per cent) primary schools will also struggle.
The NEU said that new projections for school funding show that, assuming staff were to receive pay awards next year in line with the award for 2023-24, then “92 per cent of mainstream schools will face real-terms cuts from April”.
The site allows people to see School Cuts’ projected cuts analysis at an individual school level.
This analysis does not include nursery schools, special schools, pupil referral units, alternative provision, sixth form colleges, further education colleges or hospital schools.
The launch of the website comes after unions called on the chancellor to increase school funding by £1.7 billion next year in his Autumn Statement to stop further cuts to provision.
The analysis set out on the website states that the unions expect mainstream schools’ costs to exceed the increase in school funding by 3.1 per cent, which they say is equivalent to £1.4 billion.
And the website - which is supported by charity Parentkind - claims that as a consequence, 18,484 (92 per cent) mainstream schools will be unable to cope with cost increases without cutting education provision.
The methodology
Unions have claimed that with current funding, schools will be able to afford only a 1 per cent pay rise for staff next year. The methodology assumes a pay award equivalent to the 6.5 per cent awarded in 2023-24 and looks at costs of teachers’ pay, non-teaching staff pay and non-staff costs.
The Institute for Fiscal Studies estimated that total school costs would grow by 7.2 per cent in 2023-24 and by 3.7 per cent in 2024-25, but the NEU, NAHT and ASCL say they expect costs to increase at a faster rate.
Former schools minister Nick Gibb said in July that, from 2024-25, every primary school would receive at least £4,655 per pupil, and every secondary at least £6,050 per pupil.
After the figures were revised following the discovery of a DfE calculation error, the minimum per-pupil funding levels are now £4,610 for primaries and £5,995 for secondaries.
Unions have called on the government to increase funding by £370 million to ensure per-pupil funding matches the initial announcement.
The School Cuts website used the pupil premium allocations for 2023-24 and increased them by 2.7 per cent for 2024-25, which the unions estimate is the highest likely increase.
The analysis also used the published allocations for the teachers’ pay additional grant (TPAG) for seven months in 2023-24 to calculate what it expects the TPAG to be for 2024-25.
‘Standards are at risk’
Paul Whiteman, general secretary of the NAHT, said the prime minister claimed at the Conservative Party conference that his main funding priority in every Spending Review would be education, and the upcoming Autumn Statement is a chance to deliver
“We hope and expect to see him putting the country’s money where his mouth is and making education the priority for this Spending Review,” Mr Whiteman said.
“As the relaunch of the Schools Cuts website shows, individual schools are struggling, and investment is desperately needed.
Daniel Kebede, general secretary of the NEU, said that “thirteen years of Conservative rule has been defined by sustained real-terms cuts to education” and that there was a need for “substantial new investment in the coming Autumn Statement”.
And general secretary of ASCL Geoff Barton said: “The data provided by the School Cuts website is stark and the conclusion inescapable - educational provision and standards are at risk because of the inadequacy of government funding.”
A DfE spokesperson said: “School funding is rising by £3.5 billion this year compared with 2022-23, reaching the highest level in history, in real terms per pupil, by 2024-25.
“Teachers received a 6.5 per cent pay award this September and starting salaries are now at least £30,000, which recognises the hard work of teachers and leaders.
“The government will also provide a hardship fund of up to £40 million to support those schools facing the greatest financial challenges.”
