The number of trainees placed on secondary school teaching courses is nearly a fifth below pre-pandemic levels, government figures suggest.
By mid-June this year, the number of secondary and further education applicants placed on courses was 10,576, down by 18 per cent from the same point in 2019.
The gap has widened since the last figures were analysed in April, when they had fallen by 14 per cent.
Experts say this is down to fewer applicants applying to teacher training courses, as well as a smaller proportion of applications being accepted - potentially showing a drop in quality.
The figures for primary teacher trainees are less stark than for secondary but still show a 6 per cent fall, from 10,960 in June 2019 to 10,312 by June this year.
The 2019 figures were published by Ucas, whereas from this year they have been published by the DfE.
Tes has included FE figures in the analysis for consistency as the Ucas “secondary” figures also incorporated FE. The total number of placed applicants on FE courses by June 2022 was 329.
Fall in applicants
As well as the fall in trainees being placed on teacher training courses, fewer are applying in the first place, the figures show.
Overall, there have been 49,562 ITT secondary and FE applications so far this academic year.
By June 2019, Ucas had recorded 53,250 secondary ITT applications (including FE), meaning there has been a 7 per cent decrease from two years ago.
Matt Perks, lead tutor for the PGCE secondary science courses at the University of Southampton, suggested on Twitter that there had also been a decrease in the quality of applicants.
Teacher pay
Jack Worth, school workforce lead at the National Foundation for Educational Research (NFER), said the latest figures “highlight the challenging environment” the country is currently experiencing in recruiting new teachers, “especially for secondary”.
He said that these recruitment challenges will only be “further intensified without action to address the competitiveness of teacher pay”.
He added that average pay in the UK is set to rise by 5.3 per cent this year, with teachers’ pay under current proposals increasing by an average of 3.9 per cent - and this ”only likely to exacerbate the teacher supply challenges that were prevalent before the pandemic and have rapidly re-emerged”.
Last week, the NEU teaching union wrote to the education secretary Nadhim Zahawi warning that it would ballot members over strike action this autumn if the government did not offer a pay rise more in line with inflation.
In March, the DfE asked the national pay body to recommend a starting salary for teachers of £30,000 by 2023, admitting a “significant” pay rise was necessary to increase recruitment and retention.
But earlier this month, an NFER report warned that the DfE’s proposed changes to teacher pay would be unlikely to solve teacher supply shortages, particularly in Stem subjects.
Physics 17% below target
Teacher training applications had previously seen a huge increase in 2020, amid uncertainty in the labour market.
But analysis of the data yesterday revealed the number of placed applicants was behind targets in most subjects.
The NFER has estimated that just 17 per cent of the target for physics trainees will be achieved this September.
Mr Worth said there were opportunities to “influence next year’s recruitment situation” by taking actions such as reviewing bursaries and increasing them in certain subjects. The NFER thinks this includes “religious education, English, art, geography and biology”.
Mr Worth said that while increasing teacher pay could have an impact, it would not affect this year’s numbers.
A Department for Education spokesperson said the DfE had proposed the “highest pay awards in a generation” for new teachers at around 16.7 per cent over the next two years, “alongside further pay awards for more experienced teachers and leaders”.
They said the proposed increases sit alongside the Levelling Up Premiums of “up to £3,000 tax-free for teachers in high-demand Stem subjects and access to fully funded, high-quality professional development” that will help to “raise the status of the teaching profession and make it an attractive career”.
“The number of teachers in the system remains high and there are now more than 456,000 teachers working in state-funded schools across the country, which is 24,000 more than in 2010,” they added.
