Teacher supply is likely to remain significantly below target for primary schools in coming years, despite falling pupil rolls, according to an analysis of the “critical” state of the recruitment and retention crisis.
While secondary school recruitment also remains well below target, a falling birth rate would suggest that fewer new primary teachers are likely to be needed, the latest analysis by the National Foundation for Educational Research (NFER) states.
However, falling pupil numbers are unlikely to solve primary teacher supply problems, it says.
This is because recruitment among primary teachers is currently so low that the target may need to rise over time, “further worsening the supply picture”, the NFER warns.
The forecast suggests that teacher supply is likely to remain “significantly below target, both for secondary where it has been ever since the pandemic, but also for primary”.
Lower-than-average pay rise ‘unthinkable’
The NFER warned that teacher recruitment and retention is still “critical” after last year’s 6.5 per cent pay award following a series of strikes.
Its analysis concluded that any strategy that had teacher pay increasing at a slower rate than average earnings should be “unthinkable” for the next government.
“It is therefore crucial that the government implements a pay strategy that is likely to contribute to improving teacher supply, and that it is adequately funded at the next spending review,” the report said.
Pepe Di’Iasio, general secretary of the Association of School and College Leaders, said that the analysis shows how the government has “utterly failed to get a grip of this crisis and many schools are struggling to put teachers in front of classes”.
The report, commissioned by the Gatsby Charitable Foundation, finds that closing the gap between average earnings and teacher pay would be an effective part of a long-term strategy to address teacher supply challenges.
Emphasis on pupil behaviour needed
It also recommends that a “continued emphasis on workload reduction - especially relating to pupil behaviour - would very likely complement actions to improve the financial attractiveness of teaching”.
Teachers have previously reported how pupil misbehaviour is causing regular interruptions to lessons and impacting their wellbeing and mental health.
However, the NFER warned that workload reduction “takes time and could be unsuccessful”.
Instead, the next government “should be forming a pay strategy that will make a significant contribution to addressing teacher supply, while securing the public funding required to deliver it”.
Increasing pay may not improve all subject shortages
The NFER reiterated its previous finding that there may be continued shortages in some subjects, even if the government were to commit an additional £4 billion on pay annually by 2027-28.
This is particularly true for subjects such as physics, it said.
The NFER’s calls were echoed by Dr Patrick Roach, general secretary of the NASUWT teaching union, who said that the government has “categorically failed to deliver the measures needed to recruit and retain the teachers the system needs”.
“If ministers want to win the support of teachers, they need to demonstrate that they are willing to act to tackle the root cause of the recruitment and retention crisis before it gets even worse,” Mr Roach continued.
The report comes after schools minister Damian Hinds refused to guarantee a long-awaited update on the government workforce strategy before the general election.
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