The latest economic forecasts mean teachers will need a pay rise of more than 3.3 per cent next year, an expert has warned.
This is needed to “improve competitiveness” but would require extra funding, according to Jack Worth, school workforce lead at the National Foundation for Educational Research.
The warning comes the day after the NEU teaching union stated that, if education secretary Gillian Keegan backs a “meagre” pay rise for teachers next year, an indicative ballot would be launched in late February.
It also follows figures published by the Department for Education last week revealing that the government missed its target for the recruitment of secondary teacher trainees by 50 per cent - an even greater shortfall than last year.
The Office for Budget Responsibility previously estimated that average earnings growth in the UK during the 2024-25 financial year would be 1.7 per cent, but this was raised to 3.3 per cent in last month’s Autumn Statement.
“To improve competitiveness, the best current estimate is that the teacher pay award for next year would need to exceed 3.3 per cent”, Mr Worth told Tes.
But, with no additional funding for schools announced in the Autumn Statement, “the pay award that is currently affordable for schools is unlikely to improve recruitment and retention”, Mr Worth said.
Analysis from the Institute for Fiscal Studies has found that schools can afford a pay rise of about 3 per cent next year.
Additional funding needed
The government “will need to look at” additional funding next year to “support a 2024 teacher pay award that might address the worsening teacher recruitment and retention situation”, Mr Worth added.
Last year, the School Teachers’ Review Body warned that a failure to invest to “proactively manage the worsening recruitment position and declining competitiveness of teacher pay” would impact the quality of education.
And, in recent weeks, Gillian Keegan has come under fire from unions over “delays” in starting the teacher pay process for next year.
Geoff Barton, general secretary of the Association of School and College Leaders, said that to address the current supply crisis, ”there needs to be a significant shift in teacher pay that takes into account not only immediate financial trends but the long-term erosion of teacher pay, which has made it increasingly uncompetitive in the labour market”.
‘Meaningful pay award unaffordable for schools’
Mr Barton said that the lack of additional funding for education in the Autumn Statement ”means that any meaningful pay award next year will be unaffordable for schools”.
Paul Whiteman, general secretary of the NAHT school leaders’ union, said that “in the midst of a full-blown recruitment and retention crisis, the government needs to be thinking about how it can make inroads into restoring the value of pay, not reducing it further”.
Dr Patrick Roach, general secretary of the NASUWT teaching union, said: “Despite the overwhelming scale of the crisis in teacher numbers created by this government, the education secretary’s response has been to sit on her hands and deliberately delay the pay review body process.”
A Department for Education spokesperson said that the department would begin the next pay round “at the appropriate time”.
“In recognition of their hard work, teachers received a 6.5 per cent pay award in September and starting salaries are now at least £30,000.”
