The government’s proposed changes to teacher pay are unlikely to solve teacher supply shortages, particularly in Stem subjects, a new report warns.
While initial teacher training (ITT) recruitment targets for maths could be met over the next four years, targets are “unlikely” to be achieved in physics, chemistry, computing and across all three science subjects combined, experts have said.
A report published today also suggests that recruitment targets for physics and computing are “highly unlikely” to be met “under any package of measures”.
The National Foundation for Educational Research (NFER) study say that the School Teachers’ Review Body (STRB), which makes recommendations on pay to the government, should consider recommending increasing teacher pay by more than 3.9 per cent overall in 2022-23, to remain competitive with the wider labour market.
And the report also suggests that there is “little evidence” that early-career payments (ECPs) and phased bursaries correlate with improved recruitment.
The NFER says there has been “chronic under-recruitment” and “higher-than-average leaving rates for maths and science”, mostly because of the other options Stem graduates have outside of teaching.
Jack Worth, co-author of the report and NFER school workforce lead, said more action is needed to tackle retention and recruitment issues in these subjects.
He warned that failing to take action would lead to an increasing teacher supply shortage, “which is likely to have a negative impact on the quality of Stem education in England”.
The research, commissioned by the Gatsby Charitable Foundation, looked at how responsive ITT recruitment was to various economic and financial factors, and used its findings to forecast future teacher supply.
Using a scenario-testing model integrating both teacher recruitment and retention, the NFER predicted and assessed the “likely implications for teacher supply of a range of different financial policy options for attracting and retaining teachers”.
Teacher recruitment: pay increases and bursaries aid supply
The study found that both teacher pay and bursaries are “significant levers” for policymakers in increasing ITT recruitment.
Analysis from the NFER estimates that a 1 per cent increase in the teaching starting salary is associated with a 2 per cent increase in applicants to ITT.
But the NFER and Gatsby recommend that, in light of the gloomy economic forecast, the STRB should consider recommending that teacher pay should increase by more than 3.9 per cent overall in 2022-23, to maintain teacher pay competitiveness and support teacher supply.
Mr Worth said: “With average pay in the UK set to rise by 5.3 per cent this year, increasing teachers’ pay by an average of 3.9 per cent is only likely to exacerbate the teacher supply challenges that were prevalent before the pandemic and have rapidly re-emerged.”
The NFER also found “strong evidence” that training bursaries are associated with increases in ITT recruitment.
Overall, results showed a 2.9 per cent increase in applicants for every £1,000 increase in bursary.
To address recruitment and retention issues, the report recommends that the Department for Education should consider increasing bursaries in shortage subjects “up to a maximum of £30,000” and expand the “levelling up premium” to apply to teachers working in schools across England.
Early-career payments have ‘no significant impact’
The research also found that increases in early-career payments have “no significant impact” on ITT applications (a 0.7 per cent increase in applicants for every £1,000 increase in early career payment for scenario-modelling purposes).
More measures needed to tackle the physics shortage
Physics and computing are “highly unlikely” to meet their recruitment targets under any “reasonable package of financial measures”, the report warns.
As a result, it recommends that the education system could offer “subject specialism training in physics for trainees and teachers in the classroom”; ensure that physics teachers are deployed to teach physics rather than other subjects; and address the “relatively low numbers of students studying physics at A level and as an undergraduate degree”.
In January of this year, the DfE was warned that this shortage needed to be “addressed urgently” to avoid the problem becoming “compounded”.
Jenni French, head of teacher programmes at the Gatsby Charitable Foundation, said the report was “yet more evidence” that financial incentives can have an impact on teacher supply.
Mr Worth said that while the DfE’s proposal to target higher pay increases at early career teachers was “sensible”, analysis showed that the “overall financial package” would likely still leave the sector “short of the new teachers it needs”.
“Particularly for shortage subjects such as physics, chemistry and computing, more action to improve teacher supply is needed, whether that is financial or non-financial,” he added.
‘More attractive pay levels outside of teaching’ are a ‘serious threat’
Commenting on the report, Kevin Courtney, joint general secretary of the NEU teaching union, said the research was “further confirmation of the damage that will be caused by the government’s plan to again cut the value of teacher pay”.
“As the NFER notes, the improvement to some teacher supply measures due to the pandemic was short-term, and the more attractive pay levels outside of teaching represent a serious threat to teacher supply,” he added.
Mr Courtney said a “double whammy of pay cuts against both inflation and earnings will intensify the already critical teacher supply problems”.
He added that lower pay increases for experienced teachers will cause “fury” and exacerbate an “already serious retention problem”.
“We need to not only recruit more teachers by improving starting pay, but also to provide pay progression to pay levels sufficient to properly value teachers throughout their careers,” Mr Courtney said.
“Solving the critical teacher supply problems is in the interests of young people and their parents, as well as of educators. It is not possible to repair teachers’ pay, value them properly and effectively support teacher supply within the current inadequate funding envelope.”
Yesterday the NEU warned the education secretary that it will ballot members over strike action in the autumn if the government fails to commit to a “fully funded inflation-plus pay increase”.
A Department for Education spokesperson said that teachers were the “backbone” of the education system and teaching “should be seen as the high value, prestigious profession it is”.
“That’s why we have proposed the highest pay awards in a generation for new teachers - 16.7 per cent over the next two years - alongside further pay awards for more experienced teachers and leaders.”
The spokesperson said that the proposed pay increases “sit alongside” the Levelling Up Premiums “of up to £3,000 tax-free for teachers in high demand Stem subjects” as well as access to “fully-funded, high quality professional development, helping to raise the status of the teaching profession and make it an attractive career”.
“The number of teachers in the system remains high and there are now more than 456,000 teachers working in state-funded schools across the country, which is 24,000 more than 2010.”
