The number of excess places in primary schools has doubled over 10 years to its highest level since records began, new government data published today shows.
Secondary and primary school applications and offers statistics show that there were 130,776 excess primary school places recorded for the 2023-24 academic year.
This is almost double the 65,649 excess places recorded for 2014-15.
Experts have warned that falling primary pupil rolls come at a time when school budgets “are already under such pressure, school leaders may struggle to absorb any further reductions in their budgets”.
The Department for Education data includes a time series from 2014-15, when primary data was first collected following the inaugural primary national offer day.
It shows a pattern of primary school surplus places rising while those in secondary fall.
Today’s data also showed that there was a 1.3 per cent year-on-year fall in the number of applicants for a place at primary school for September 2023, to around 568,600.
The DfE said this is “likely to be a result of the continued drop in births seen from 2016 onwards”.
Falling birth rates mean there are projected to be half a million fewer pupils in English state nurseries and primaries in 2028 compared with 2022, reducing the funds available to primaries in the future.
Basic per-pupil funding rates are higher at secondary than at primary level, with every primary school receiving at least £4,405 per pupil, and every secondary school at least £5,715 in 2023-24.
Today’s data also reveals that the proportion of secondary school applicants who received an offer of their first preference school decreased by 0.7 percentage points to 82.6 per cent, following a 2.2 percentage point increase in 2022.
The number of applications to secondary schools for September 2023 increased by 1 per cent year-on-year, with around 620,000 applications received.
The proportion of primary school applicants who received an offer of their first preference school rose slightly by 0.3 percentage points to 92.5 per cent.
Across both primary and secondary, the three lowest first preference rates were all in London.
At primary, the lowest preference rates were Kensington and Chelsea (70.4 per cent), Camden (81.3 per cent) and Hammersmith and Fulham (82.2 per cent).
At secondary, the local authorities with the lowest first preference rates were Lambeth (61.6 per cent), Redbridge (63.3 per cent) and Wandsworth (64 per cent).
Louis Hodge, associate director at the Education Policy Institute, said that the data highlighted “a number of developing trends across the English education system”.
He added: “With roughly double the number of excess places across primary schools in England today than in 2014, it is important to remember that most school funding is allocated on a per-pupil basis. As a result, falling pupil numbers can lower budgets for schools, while not lowering costs much, given these are largely fixed.”
Mr Hodge said that the “surge” in primary pupils in recent years meant “excess places within primary schools have now roughly doubled since 2014, while they have more than halved in secondary schools”.
There were 79,629 surplus secondary school places in 2014-15 compared with 35,920 for 2023-24.
“For parents that have not been offered their first preference, many will consider utilising the appeals and waiting lists system. Our own research has shown that navigating these can be difficult, with pupils from more affluent backgrounds being more likely to succeed via these routes,” Mr Hodge added.
Paul Whiteman, general secretary of the NAHT school leaders’ union, said that falling application numbers are “having a negative impact on some schools, who are struggling to balance budgets or plan provision into the future, and are having to reduce their staff numbers”.
He added: “It is important that this current decline doesn’t lead to rash decisions to reduce the number of school places, only to find they are needed again in a few years. Such a knee-jerk reaction could end up costing more in the long term.
“Rather than simply shrinking provision, the government could take this opportunity to reduce class sizes. NAHT has called for a long-term sustainable plan to address this issue and support schools affected.”
Geoff Barton, general secretary of the Association of School and College Leaders, said that many primary schools “are having to look at how they manage a reduction in numbers and the associated funding implications”.
He added: “This situation is made a lot more difficult by the fact that the level of government funding for primary school pupils is so low that any decrease in numbers can quickly threaten the financial viability of the school concerned.
“Schools cannot continue on this funding precipice and the government must invest properly in education.”
Commenting on figures showing how many pupils were allocated places at a preferred school, schools minister Nick Gibb said: “It is great to know that, up and down the country, families are able to make the right choice for their child, enrolling them in a school and environment that they feel will best support their child to learn and develop.
“Today’s figures attest to the government’s priority in providing good quality school places, which will ensure every child has the opportunity to meet their potential.”
