Tens of thousands of school leavers could miss out on the top A-level grades they might have expected last year, it has been suggested.
The government has said the number of A* and A grades awarded in England should fall back to pre-pandemic levels as exams return to normal.
But professor Alan Smithers, director of the Centre for Education and Employment Research at the University of Buckingham, has suggested 59,154 fewer A* grades and 35,505 fewer A grades will be awarded to sixth-formers this year compared with last year.
The professor predicts around 10 per cent of grades will be an A* and around 27.5 per cent will be an A this year, compared with 14.6 per cent of last year’s grades being an A* and 36.4 per cent being an A.
In 2019, 7.8 per cent of grades were an A* and 25.5 per cent were an A.
Professor Smithers expects the number of top grades to fall significantly but not by quite as much as the government requested, as was the case last year.
He said: “Teacher assessment has given subjective subjects a taste for awarding top grades, which they will be reluctant to relinquish.
“During the teacher assessment years, many students and their parents will have developed unreasonable expectations.
“Whatever the extent to which top grades are brought down this year, the drop will lead to a lot of disappointment and probably a huge increase in the number of appeals.”
Professor Smithers also said disruption from teacher strikes may have led exam boards to be more lenient.
Saxton: Grading arrangements made with disadvantaged students in mind
On this year’s exam marking, Dr Jo Saxton, Ofqual’s chief regulator, told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme: “The grading arrangements that we’ve made have been made absolutely with disadvantaged students in mind.”
On how this year’s grading would affect that group’s chances, she added: “First of all, this has been a two-year planned programme, it has been developed with the sector, universities have been aware how the grading would work at the point of making offers to young people.
“And in terms of how the actual protection in terms of grading is put in place, senior examiners are looking back at the quality of work from 2019, what it took to achieve a grade in 2019 and, as chief regulator, I’ve instructed them to bear in mind the context of this exam series, to bear in mind the disruptions students have suffered.
“Absolutely the pandemic has cast a long shadow, but I think it’s important to remember that there were gaps between student results, between different types of schools and different parts of the country, prior to the pandemic.”
A Department for Education spokesperson said: “This year, GCSE and A-level grading is largely returning to normal, in line with plans set out by Ofqual almost two years ago, to make sure qualifications maintain their value and students get the opportunities they deserve.
“This means national results are expected to be similar to those in pre-pandemic years, and a student should be just as likely to achieve a particular grade this year as they would have been before the pandemic.
“The number of top grades also has no bearing on the number of university places available.”
An Ofqual spokesperson said: “This year, we expect exam grades to go back to similar levels to 2019, which was the last year before the pandemic.
“This is part of a planned two-year programme of returning exams to normal.
“Because of the disruption students have faced, there are still grade protections in place, which mean a student will be just as likely to achieve a particular grade this year as they would have been before the pandemic.”
